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⛏️ US-China Rare Earth Exports Explainer

The US-China trade deal celebrated in Geneva is fraying over rare earth exports, with Washington accusing Beijing of violating promises to restore mineral flows while China maintains licensing requirements imposed in April. China agreed to suspend sanctions on 45 US companies for 90 days but never explicitly promised to reverse export licensing for seven critical rare earths used in electric motors and hard drives. US officials expected immediate resumption of exports after Geneva talks, but Chinese licensing approvals are coming through slowly as Beijing works through bureaucratic processes, with some companies now obtaining permits but exports remaining below pre-restriction levels. Full Explainer on Bloomberg

🇵🇸 US Vetoes Gaza Ceasefire

The United States vetoed a UN Security Council resolution calling for an immediate, unconditional ceasefire in Gaza, standing alone against 14 other members who voted in favor as Israeli strikes killed nearly 100 Palestinians in one day. Washington rejected the measure because it didn't directly link the ceasefire to hostage releases, while China accused Israel of crossing "every red line" of international law with US protection. The veto came as Israel warned starving Palestinians away from US-backed aid sites, declaring them "combat zones" after opening fire on crowds seeking food, killing over 100 aid seekers since operations began May 27. More - Al Jazeera

🇺🇦 Putin Threatens Ukraine Retaliation

President Trump said Vladimir Putin warned of retaliation for Ukraine's massive drone strikes on Russian airbases during a 75-minute call that Trump described as "good" but unlikely to lead to "immediate peace." Ukrainian President Zelensky rejected Russian peace terms as an "ultimatum," calling demands for territorial surrender and military restrictions unacceptable "theater" designed to delay Western sanctions. The exchange followed Ukraine's biggest long-range attack of the war, which damaged strategic bombers deep inside Russia, while peace talks in Istanbul produced only agreement on a prisoner exchange involving 500 Ukrainian troops. More - Washington Post

Asia Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇨🇳 China, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇳 India, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan, 🇻🇳 Vietnam

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇹🇯 Tajikistan

Regional News Summary

French President Emmanuel Macron's state visit to Singapore included a notable address at the Shangri-La Dialogue, where he emphasized the need for unity between Asia and Europe to counter "spheres of coercion." He controversially likened the Ukraine conflict to the Taiwan issue, a comparison that drew sharp criticism from China, which deemed it "unacceptable" [SOURCE - Malay Mail]. Meanwhile, U.S. officials have raised alarms about China's military preparations in Asia, with India's Chief of Defence Staff asserting that India will not tolerate proxy wars of terror [SOURCE - Rediff].

On the economic front, Singapore has maintained its position as the largest source of foreign direct investment for India for the seventh consecutive year [SOURCE - The Economic Times]. In a related development, Adani Ports and SEZ are set to raise significant funds through long-term bonds, while Torrent Power has secured a liquefied natural gas supply agreement with BP Singapore [SOURCE - The Economic Times].

In local news, Singapore's Defence Minister Chan Chun Sing has called for adherence to international rules amid rising global security challenges [SOURCE - Dimsum Daily]. Additionally, the Singapore National Swimming Championship saw Olympian Srihari achieve the best Indian time in the 200m freestyle event [SOURCE - Deccan Chronicle].

The ongoing rivalry between the United States and China continues to escalate, with accusations of trade agreement violations from both sides. President Trump has claimed that China has not upheld its commitments regarding U.S. agricultural purchases, while China has retaliated by accusing the U.S. of abusing semiconductor export controls [SOURCE - CNBC]. The trade talks appear to have stalled, causing U.S. futures to slip [SOURCE - Forbes].

In a bid to strengthen its global ties, China has been actively engaging in diplomatic efforts. Bangladesh recently shipped its first mangoes to China, marking a significant milestone in their trade relations [SOURCE - Malay Mail]. Additionally, China hosted a conference aimed at enhancing investment and trade with Bangladesh [SOURCE - The Daily Star].

In the realm of regional security, tensions over Taiwan have intensified, with U.S. Defense Secretary warnings about China's military readiness to use force in the region. These remarks have provoked strong backlash from China, which accuses the U.S. of undermining regional peace [SOURCE - NDTV]. Concurrently, the U.S. plans to sell over $18 billion in arms to Taiwan, further escalating the situation [SOURCE - Malay Mail]. 

Oceania Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇫🇯 Fiji, 🇰🇮 Kiribati, 🇳🇷 Nauru, 🇳🇿 New Zealand, 🇵🇼 Palau, 🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea, 🇼🇸 Samoa, 🇸🇧 Solomon Islands, 🇹🇴 Tonga

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇦🇺 Australia, 🇫🇲 Federated States of Micronesia, 🇲🇭 Marshall Islands, 🇹🇻 Tuvalu, 🇻🇺 Vanuatu

Regional News Summary

Australia is preparing for a dry winter, raising concerns about increased fire risks in southern regions, particularly around Melbourne and Adelaide. The Bureau of Meteorology has issued warnings, although there is a glimmer of hope as forecasts suggest a potential boost in winter rainfall due to a major climate driver, which could provide some relief to these areas [SOURCE - ABC].

Meanwhile, the United States has made significant requests for Australia to increase its defense spending to 3.5% of GDP, a substantial ask that reflects growing geopolitical tensions [SOURCE - ABC]. In a sign of strengthening ties, trilateral talks were held between Korea, Japan, and Australia to discuss security and cooperation [SOURCE - Korea Times].

On the political front, Prime Minister Albanese emphasized Australia's autonomy in determining its defense policy, while also criticizing former President Trump's economic strategies [SOURCE - Michael West]. Additionally, the Australian Deputy Prime Minister is set to visit India to renew a comprehensive strategic partnership, further enhancing diplomatic relations [SOURCE - Hindu Business Line]. Australia is also gifting a Guardian-class patrol boat to the Maldives, signaling a commitment to regional security and cooperation [SOURCE - The Hindu].

In New Zealand, the Foreign Minister is set to discuss bilateral ties and ongoing free trade agreement negotiations with India, highlighting the importance of economic collaboration [SOURCE - The Hindu Business Line]. The government is also backing local growers and food security initiatives, emphasizing the need for a self-sufficient food system [SOURCE - Scoop].

The Marshall Islands continue to grapple with the dual challenges of climate change and the legacy of nuclear testing. Rising sea levels threaten the islands' existence, while the effects of past nuclear tests linger, causing health issues among residents. International support is crucial, with the European Union pledging financial assistance to combat climate change and the U.S. committing to address its nuclear legacy [SOURCE - European Union].

In Fiji, the suspension of the anti-corruption commissioner raises concerns about governance and the effectiveness of anti-corruption measures in the country [SOURCE - RNZ]. This comes amid calls for a review of the e-ticketing system, which has faced numerous challenges [SOURCE - Scoop].

In the Solomon Islands, a commitment to transparency has been demonstrated by the Central Honiara Constituency, which returned over $500,000 in funding to churches, promoting accountable governance [SOURCE - Scoop]. Additionally, the country has endorsed the 'Growing The Pacific 2050' strategy, aimed at advancing resilient agrifood systems and promoting economic growth [SOURCE - Scoop].

Carpe tomorrow!