Good morning.

🔻 US Stocks Plunge After Fed Warning

US markets plunged Wednesday as Powell warned of inflation risks from trade tensions and the Trump administration restricted chip exports to China. Nvidia fell 6.9% facing $5.5 billion in charges while AMD dropped 7.4%, expecting an $800 million writedown, after both companies' advanced chips were barred from China. The selloff deepened during Powell's Chicago speech, with the S&P 500 closing down 2.2% and the semiconductor index dropping 4.1%. More - Bloomberg

🇮🇷 Iran and US Nuclear Talks to Continue in Rome

Iran confirmed nuclear negotiations with the US will take place in Rome on Saturday, with Oman mediating amid escalating tensions. IAEA chief Rafael Grossi arrived in Tehran warning Iran is "not far" from nuclear weapons capability, as the country continues enriching uranium to 60 percent purity. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi maintained enrichment rights are "non-negotiable" despite US envoy Witkoff's statement that Iran "must stop and eliminate its nuclear enrichment." More - Al Jazeera

Asia Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇨🇳 China, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇳 India, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇯 Tajikistan, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan, 🇻🇳 Vietnam

Regional News Summary

Singapore's economy is facing challenges as the government has downgraded its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to between 0-2%, largely due to the impact of U.S. tariffs on global trade. In response, the central bank has eased monetary policy for the second consecutive time to mitigate the effects of the ongoing trade war. The Singapore Business Federation has called on ASEAN countries to enhance intra-regional trade to reduce reliance on external markets [SOURCE - Channel News Asia].

As Singapore prepares for its general elections on May 3, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong condemned insensitive remarks made by Calvin Cheng, emphasizing the need for national cohesion. The political landscape has been further complicated by the emergence of deepfake videos targeting former President Halimah Yacob, who criticized such "dirty tactics" [SOURCE - Channel News Asia].

Meanwhile, the trade war between the U.S. and China has escalated, with both nations imposing reciprocal tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of goods. This tit-for-tat has sparked widespread concern about its impact on global markets, with analysts warning of a prolonged period of uncertainty [SOURCE - India Today]. In a retaliatory move, China has imposed tariffs of up to 125% on U.S. goods, including beef and wine, further straining bilateral relations [SOURCE - The South African].

In the midst of these tensions, Vietnam has welcomed the U.S.'s decision to pause tariffs, viewing it as a positive development for its manufacturing sector. This pause is seen as an opportunity for Vietnam to position itself as an alternative manufacturing hub to China [SOURCE - VNExpress].

As the economic landscape shifts, India is emerging as a global manufacturing hub, particularly in electronics. Companies like Apple are airlifting products from India to avoid U.S. tariffs, while the government is actively pursuing trade deals to capitalize on the U.S.-China trade conflict [SOURCE - Bangkok Post]. Additionally, India is strengthening its trade relations with countries like Chile and Italy, aiming to enhance collaboration in various sectors [SOURCE - Daily Excelsior].

In the realm of humanitarian issues, the Taliban's enforcement of strict moral codes in Afghanistan has drawn international condemnation, with reports of arrests for non-compliance with their regulations [SOURCE - New York Post]. Concurrently, the UN has warned that cuts to U.S. aid could lead to famine in Afghanistan, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis [SOURCE - Malay Mail].

In Myanmar, the aftermath of a devastating earthquake has left thousands dead, prompting international aid efforts, including a significant pledge from China [SOURCE - The Sun]. The junta has affirmed plans to hold elections in December, despite the ongoing chaos [SOURCE - The Diplomat].

Oceania Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇺 Australia, 🇰🇮 Kiribati, 🇳🇷 Nauru, 🇳🇿 New Zealand, 🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea, 🇼🇸 Samoa, 🇸🇧 Solomon Islands, 🇻🇺 Vanuatu

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇫🇲 Federated States of Micronesia, 🇫🇯 Fiji, 🇲🇭 Marshall Islands, 🇵🇼 Palau, 🇹🇴 Tonga, 🇹🇻 Tuvalu

Regional News Summary

Australia's climate policy is under scrutiny as the government prepares to soften its 2030 climate target, raising alarms about its commitment to the Paris Agreement. Critics argue that the Coalition's plan to eliminate fuel efficiency penalties would position Australia as a global outlier, potentially increasing greenhouse gas emissions and undermining national climate goals. In contrast, Prime Minister Albanese has reaffirmed the importance of acquiring AUKUS submarines, emphasizing their role in enhancing deterrence and stealth capabilities in a shifting geopolitical landscape [SOURCE - The Conversation].

In the realm of trade and diplomacy, Australia has firmly rejected China's overtures for closer economic ties, signaling a significant snub to Beijing's attempts to mend bilateral relations. Additionally, concerns have been raised regarding Russia's military interests in Indonesia, prompting Australia to alert its neighbor about the potential establishment of a Russian airbase [SOURCE - RedState].

Socially, there is mounting pressure for a seniors' dental scheme ahead of the federal election, with advocates highlighting its necessity for the health and wellbeing of Australia's elderly population. Meanwhile, the rental market has raised national security concerns, as experts warn that sensitive tenant information could be exploited by foreign actors [SOURCE - ABC].

Turning to New Zealand, the country is bracing for the economic impact of US tariffs on its key exports, including dairy and meat. A recent report indicates that while the US-China trade war may leave New Zealand worse off, it remains well-positioned to navigate these challenges. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has emphasized the need for a strong partnership with the US in light of these developments [SOURCE - Economic Times].

In a positive development, New Zealand has eased visa restrictions for Pacific Island nations, facilitating easier and cheaper access for citizens from these countries. This move aligns with the broader strategy to strengthen ties within the Pacific region [SOURCE - RNZ].

Fiji is poised to benefit from New Zealand's new visitor visa policies, which aim to simplify the application process for Pacific Islanders. This initiative underscores the growing importance of regional ties amid increasing global competition and security concerns. However, neighboring Vanuatu faces significant challenges, struggling to fund its earthquake recovery efforts and likely relying on external aid [SOURCE - RNZ].

In the broader context of regional relations, India and Nepal have intensified their cooperation to combat border smuggling and fake currency, marking a significant step in enhancing border security. The reopening of the India-Nepal border after a curfew is expected to boost trade and economic activities between the two countries [SOURCE - Times of India].

Carpe tomorrow!