Good morning

🇸🇩 Children Dying of Hunger in Darfur

Children are dying of starvation in Sudan's besieged city of el-Fasher as prices have soared so dramatically that money for a week's worth of meals now buys only one, with community kitchens serving animal feed residue to desperate families. The BBC obtained rare footage showing the 14-month RSF blockade has created catastrophic conditions where doctors report over 60 malnutrition deaths last week, with severely malnourished children "just waiting for their death" in hospitals lacking therapeutic food supplies. International aid groups condemned the "calculated use of starvation as a weapon of war" as cholera spreads through displaced person camps, while humanitarian convoys remain blocked despite UN appeals for access to the trapped population. More - BBC

🛢️ Oil Near Two-Month Low on Oversupply Fears

Oil steadied near a two-month low with WTI just below $63 and Brent closing under $66 after the International Energy Agency warned of record oversupply next year, with inventories accumulating at 2.96 million barrels daily - exceeding even pandemic-year 2020 levels. Oil has lost over 10% this year following OPEC+'s completion of output curb reversals, while traders monitor Friday's Trump-Putin summit that could impact Russian sanctions. Trump warned of "very severe consequences" if Putin doesn't agree to a ceasefire, as US crude stockpiles rose 3 million barrels last week to two-month highs and the IEA increased its forecast for non-OPEC+ production, especially in the Americas. More - Bloomberg

🇺🇦 Trump Promises Trilateral Meeting If Putin Summit ‘Goes Ok’

President Trump promised trilateral talks with Putin and Zelensky after Friday's Alaska summit, saying "I would like to do it immediately" if the bilateral meeting "goes OK," while warning Russia faces "severe consequences" if Putin doesn't agree to end the war. The pledge came after a virtual meeting with Zelensky and European leaders who demanded no peace talks without Ukrainian representation and tougher sanctions if Russia rejects a ceasefire. German Chancellor Merz stressed that "legal recognition of Russian occupation is not up for debate" while Zelensky accused Putin of "bluffing" about peace talks as Russian forces achieved their largest 24-hour territorial advance in over a year in Ukraine's Donetsk province. More - Al Jazeera

Asia Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇨🇳 China, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇳 India, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇯 Tajikistan, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan, 🇻🇳 Vietnam

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan

Regional News Summary

Singapore has upgraded its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to between 1.5% and 2.5%, buoyed by a robust 4.4% growth in the second quarter. This positive outlook is complemented by expectations of a rebound in the stock market following a recent decline, as analysts predict a correction in the coming days. Additionally, Singapore-listed CapitaLand Reit is expanding its operations by developing new IT parks in India, marking a strategic move into a growing market [SOURCE - Channel News Asia].

In the realm of trade and diplomacy, Singapore's Prime Minister Lawrence Wong has underscored the necessity for rapid adaptation to global changes, particularly in light of ongoing trade wars affecting the manufacturing sector. In response to these tensions, Singapore has proposed a "World minus one" approach as a potential solution. Furthermore, India and Singapore are set to finalize approximately ten memoranda of understanding during an upcoming ministerial meeting, signaling a strengthening of bilateral ties [SOURCE - Daily Excelsior].

Meanwhile, the Philippines is grappling with escalating tensions in the South China Sea, highlighted by a recent collision between Chinese and Philippine vessels. President Marcos has warned that the Philippines could be drawn into a conflict over Taiwan, emphasizing the need for preparedness [SOURCE - The Sun].

In economic news, Vietnam's trade has surpassed expectations as buyers rush to avoid U.S. tariffs, particularly in the textiles and electronics sectors. This surge is attributed to companies relocating production to Vietnam to sidestep the hefty tariffs imposed on Indian goods [SOURCE - Economic Times].

In a notable development, the U.S. has extended a tariff truce with China for an additional 90 days, potentially easing trade tensions. This decision comes as U.S. Commerce Secretary signals a willingness to negotiate, which may provide a temporary reprieve for affected industries [SOURCE - CBS News].

As countries navigate these complex economic landscapes, the humanitarian situation remains pressing. Singapore has delivered its ninth tranche of humanitarian aid to Gaza, comprising essential medical and food supplies, reflecting its commitment to international support amidst ongoing conflicts [SOURCE - Channel News Asia].

Oceania Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇫🇯 Fiji, 🇰🇮 Kiribati, 🇲🇭 Marshall Islands, 🇳🇷 Nauru, 🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea, 🇸🇧 Solomon Islands, 🇹🇴 Tonga, 🇹🇻 Tuvalu, 🇻🇺 Vanuatu

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇦🇺 Australia, 🇫🇲 Federated States of Micronesia, 🇳🇿 New Zealand, 🇵🇼 Palau, 🇼🇸 Samoa

Regional News Summary

In recent developments across Oceania, Australia has made headlines with its decision to recognize a Palestinian state, a significant shift in its foreign policy regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Prime Minister Albanese's announcement reflects a growing trend among nations to reassess their diplomatic stances in light of ongoing geopolitical tensions [SOURCE - The Daily Star].

Simultaneously, Australia and New Zealand are enhancing their military collaboration, focusing on regional security amidst rising global uncertainties. This commitment to defense cooperation underscores the importance both nations place on stability in the Pacific region [SOURCE - Manila Times]. In a related development, Japan has secured a landmark deal with Australia to supply warships, marking a significant export breakthrough for Japan's defense industry and further solidifying defense ties in the region [SOURCE - Japan Forward].

On the economic front, Australia is grappling with workplace gender segregation, which has been identified as a barrier to economic growth. A recent report emphasizes the need for greater gender equality in the workforce to unlock potential economic benefits [SOURCE - Jurist].

In a bid to stimulate the economy, the Reserve Bank of Australia has cut interest rates by 25 basis points, aiming to encourage investment and spending [SOURCE - RTT News]. Furthermore, Australia and Vanuatu are nearing a significant agreement worth $500 million, which is expected to enhance bilateral relations and economic cooperation [SOURCE - ABC News].

In environmental news, a report indicates that Australia could achieve an 85% reduction in emissions by 2035, contingent upon decisive action from both government and business sectors. This highlights the urgent need for investment in renewable energy and a transition away from fossil fuels [SOURCE - The Conversation].

Turning to New Zealand, the economic outlook is less optimistic, with Labour leader Chris Hipkins acknowledging that the country is not in "economic shape" [SOURCE - RNZ]. The Kapuni fertiliser plant may temporarily shut down due to gas supply issues, further complicating the economic landscape [SOURCE - RNZ].

In immigration and labor news, the introduction of new seasonal worker visas has been positively received by Federated Farmers, who believe it will benefit rural contractors. However, concerns have been raised about migrant exploitation linked to organized crime, highlighting the need for increased scrutiny in this area [SOURCE - RNZ] [SOURCE - RNZ].

In the realm of social issues, advocates in New Zealand stress that addressing poverty is essential to tackling homelessness, emphasizing the interconnectedness of these societal challenges [SOURCE - RNZ].

Lastly, Tuvalu continues to face existential threats from climate change, with rising sea levels and natural disasters jeopardizing its future. The international community has pledged support, including €20 million from the European Union to help Tuvalu and other Pacific nations adapt to climate challenges [SOURCE - Al Jazeera] [SOURCE - European External Action Service].

Carpe tomorrow!