Good morning,

Apologies for the formatting issue with some versions of yesterday’s SITREP.

🇺🇦 Zelenskyy: Putin Planning 'New Offensive'

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy warned that Putin is preparing for "new offensive operations" rather than a ceasefire, despite Friday's scheduled Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska, saying intelligence reports show Russia redeploying troops for further assaults. Zelenskyy rejected Trump's suggestion of "land swapping," stating "concessions do not persuade a killer" as 26 European leaders stressed Ukraine's right to "choose its own destiny" and that borders "must not be changed by force." The warnings come as Trump said he would know "in the first two minutes" whether progress with Putin was possible, while the Institute for the Study of War noted Moscow isn't preparing its public for anything short of "full victory in Ukraine." More - Al Jazeera

🇳🇬 Nigerian Troops Kill 100+ 'Bandits'

Nigerian forces killed more than 100 criminal gang members in an air and ground raid in Zamfara state, targeting over 400 bandits gathered at their Makakkari forest camp according to a UN conflict monitoring report. The Sunday operation followed a Friday attack on Adabka village where bandits kidnapped residents and killed 13 security personnel, as part of escalating violence in Nigeria's northwest. The "banditry" crisis has evolved from herder-farmer conflicts into organized crime involving cattle rustling, kidnapping for ransom, and taxing farmers, while worsening malnutrition as attacks drive people from their farms and the violence spreads beyond its northwestern heartland into central Nigeria. More - France 24

Americas Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago, 🇺🇸 United States Of America, 🇻🇪 Venezuela

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda, 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇧 Barbados, 🇩🇲 Dominica, 🇬🇩 Grenada, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis, 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas, 🇺🇾 Uruguay

Regional News Summary

Brazil has emerged as a vocal opponent of the tariffs imposed by the United States, with President Lula’s advisor firmly stating that Brazil will not accept sanctions on its oil imports. In response to these tariffs, Brazil has sought alternative markets, notably turning to China, to mitigate the economic impact. The tariffs have strained trade relations, prompting Brazil to seek relief from the World Trade Organization and retaliate by imposing duties on American goods. President Lula has opted to engage with leaders from India and China instead of directly communicating with U.S. President Trump, signaling a shift in diplomatic priorities amid deteriorating relations with the U.S. [SOURCE - The Washington Post].

The economic ramifications of these tariffs are palpable, particularly affecting Brazil's agriculture and machinery sectors, leading to a decline in exports and rising prices. As Brazil navigates these challenges, it is also strengthening ties with India and China, focusing on mutual interests in trade and defense cooperation [SOURCE - The Economic Times].

Meanwhile, Mexico's economy has shown resilience despite global trade tensions. Exports to the U.S. increased by 6.3% in the first half of 2025, and Mexico has solidified its position as a key supplier to the U.S. auto industry. The country is also implementing a bold plan to rescue its state-owned oil company, Pemex, aiming to end state bailouts by 2027. However, inflation remains a concern, with the government facing pressure to maintain recent gains [SOURCE - Rio Times].

In a troubling development, tensions between Mexico and the U.S. have escalated over drug cartels, with President Trump signing an order to use military force against certain cartels, raising concerns in Mexico about potential invasions. The Mexican president has vowed that "there will be no invasion," emphasizing the need for sovereignty amid rising violence linked to organized crime [SOURCE - CBS News].

In Argentina, the arrival of IMF funds is expected to stabilize the economy, while the state-owned oil company YPF has consolidated its position by buying out TotalEnergies local concessions. This move is anticipated to enhance control over the oil sector and stimulate economic growth [SOURCE - Rio Times]. However, the country is grappling with rising violence, as a recent nightclub shooting has left eight dead, highlighting the ongoing challenges of organized crime [SOURCE - Winnipeg Free Press].

In Venezuela, the U.S. has intensified pressure on President Nicolás Maduro, doubling the reward for his arrest amid ongoing drug trafficking charges. This escalation is likely to further strain U.S.-Venezuela relations. Despite sanctions, Chevron and Valero are planning to restart Venezuelan crude supplies to U.S. refineries, raising questions about the effectiveness of U.S. sanctions [SOURCE - Yahoo Finance].

Carpe tomorrow!