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🤝 UK-EU Reset Deal

UK and EU agree to major reset deal covering fishing, trade, and defense, marking the largest reboot since Brexit. European fishing boats gain 12-year access to British waters in exchange for reduced trade barriers and paperwork. Prime Minister Starmer emphasized moving beyond "stale old debates" while opposition parties remain divided on the agreement's merits. More - BBC

🇺🇦 Ukraine-Russia Ceasefire Talks

US President Trump announced Russia and Ukraine "will immediately start negotiations" toward ending the war following a 2-hour call with Putin. Putin expressed readiness to create a memorandum on peace principles, though emphasized eliminating "root causes" with no set timeline. Zelenskyy indicated Ukraine's willingness to negotiate in Turkey, Switzerland or the Vatican, while European leaders support Pope Leo XIV's offer to host talks. More - Al Jazeera

🇵🇸 Israel’s Gaza Offensive Continues

Israel’s offensive in Gaza continues as international pressure increases. From AlJazeera’s livestream:

• The death toll from Israeli attacks on Gaza on Monday rises to 84 as the Israeli military warns residents of the southern city of Khan Younis to evacuate immediately ahead of an “unprecedented attack”.

• The leaders of Canada, France and the United Kingdom threaten sanctions against Israel if it does not end its renewed military offensive in Gaza and lift restrictions on aid.

• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has announced plans to take control of the whole of Gaza, slams the threat and promises to continue the war until “total victory” is achieved.

• Israel allows five aid trucks into Gaza, a move the United Nations says constitutes a “drop in the ocean”, as 22 countries demand the unfettered entry of aid into the enclave.

• Yemen’s Houthis announce a “maritime blockade” on Israel’s Haifa port, warning all companies with ships in the port that they have been “included in the list of targets”.

• The UN says nearly 100,000 Palestinians have been displaced in Gaza in the last four days as Israel expands its ground invasion of the Strip.

Food insecurity in the Gaza Strip is pervasive. Image from the UN’s Integrated Food Security Classification Snapshot Report

Americas Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇲 Dominica, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago, 🇺🇸 United States Of America, 🇻🇪 Venezuela

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda, 🇧🇧 Barbados, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇬🇩 Grenada, 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis, 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas, 🇺🇾 Uruguay

Regional News Summary

In Brazil, President Lula has taken a proactive stance on international diplomacy, engaging with China's Xi Jinping to facilitate negotiations between Ukraine's President Zelensky and Russia's Putin in Istanbul. This diplomatic effort comes at a time when Brazil's foreign tourism is experiencing a historic surge, nearing its annual target by April 2025, indicating a robust recovery in the tourism sector [SOURCE - Rio Times Online].

Economically, Brazil has solidified its agricultural trade with China, securing a $50 billion deal that includes poultry and ethanol markets. This partnership has led JP Morgan to raise Brazil's GDP forecast to 2.3%, reflecting optimism in the agricultural sector [SOURCE - Rio Times Online]. However, the country faces challenges, as it recently confirmed its first bird flu outbreak on a commercial poultry farm, prompting a halt in chicken exports and leading to import bans from several countries, including Mexico and Chile [SOURCE - Mercopress].

In Mexico, the political climate has been marred by violence, with a mayoral candidate and three others shot dead during a campaign rally, underscoring the escalating security crisis in the country [SOURCE - NDTV]. Additionally, a beauty influencer was tragically killed during a TikTok livestream, further highlighting the pervasive violence affecting public life [SOURCE - CNN].

On the economic front, Mexico is grappling with the fallout from a U.S. ban on livestock imports due to health concerns, which has triggered a $50 billion crisis in its livestock sector [SOURCE - Rio Times]. Meanwhile, the Mexican government is facing internal challenges, including a proposed remittance tax deemed unconstitutional by the mayor of Mexico City, amidst ongoing union protests for better teacher pay [SOURCE - Mexico News Daily].

In the United States, a new healthcare proposal threatens to leave millions without insurance, raising alarms among critics about its potential impact on the healthcare system [SOURCE - Memeorandum]. Concurrently, Cleveland-Cliffs announced the closure of several mills and mines, affecting over 2,000 workers as part of a cost-cutting strategy [SOURCE - Pittsburg Post Gazette].

Internationally, the U.S. faces increasing competition from China in Latin America, with China committing $10 billion in fresh credit to the region, further solidifying its influence [SOURCE - Economic Times]. This shift is indicative of a broader trend as Latin American countries reassess their relationships with the U.S. in light of reduced American aid.

In Argentina, Fitch Ratings has upgraded the country's credit rating to 'CCC+', reflecting the positive impact of recent economic reforms under President Javier Milei's administration [SOURCE - Rio Times]. However, the country continues to grapple with high inflation rates, which stood at 2.8% in April [SOURCE - MercoPress].

Carpe tomorrow!