Decis SITREPS
Posts
Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus

Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus

Israel-Iran Ceasefire, Niger Nationalizes Uranium Mine, India Blames Pakistan for Kashmir Attack

Andrew Sheves
June 24, 2025 • Time to Enlightenment...19 minutes

Good morning,

🇮🇱 🇮🇷 Israel-Iran Ceasefire / Conflict Update

⚠️ As of writing at 05:30ET, there are reports that Iran just fired two missiles at Israel, reports that Iran’s State media has denied. The IDF has vowed that Israel will retaliate “with force” so there may be some last-minute confusion and exchange of fire before the ceasefire fully holds.

Latest Developments (June 23–24, 2025)

Military Actions and Damage Assessments

Missile Strikes in Israel: A missile launched from Iran struck a residential building in Beer Sheva, southern Israel, killing three people (a man in his 40s, a woman in her 30s, and a man in his 20s). Six others were injured, with injuries ranging from light to moderate1 2 3.
Israeli Retaliation: Israel conducted airstrikes on Tehran overnight, targeting the Basij headquarters (a paramilitary organization) and Evin Prison (a facility holding regime dissidents), reportedly to disrupt internal security and potentially facilitate the escape of dissidents. Damage was also reported to the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) headquarters and a power feeder in the Evin District, causing a local power outage4 2.
US Military Involvement: The conflict escalated after US airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear sites on June 21, which the US Joint Chiefs of Staff described as causing "extreme damage" to Fordow, Natanz, and an unspecified facility in Esfahan. Israeli airstrikes targeted access roads to Fordow to prevent Iran from assessing damage or moving materials4.
Iranian Strike on US Base: Iran launched missiles at the US-operated Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. The base had been evacuated days prior, and the incoming missiles were intercepted without casualties2.

Casualties and Humanitarian Impact

Israel: At least three civilians killed and six injured in Beer Sheva1 2 3.
Iran: Iranian state media reported at least nine killed in an Israeli strike on a city near Tehran, though specific details were not confirmed by independent sources2.

Ceasefire Agreement: Steps and Conditions

US Mediation: US President Donald Trump, after the US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, engaged directly with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and, through intermediaries, with Iranian representatives. Qatar played a key mediating role, with Trump personally thanking the Emir of Qatar for his efforts1 2 3.
Ceasefire Proposal: Trump announced a "complete and total ceasefire" effective approximately six hours after his statement, with the intention that hostilities would wind down within that period5 2.
Conditions: Israel agreed to the ceasefire on the condition that Iran halt its missile strikes within Israeli territory. Iran accepted these terms, according to White House officials1 2.
Confirmation: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed Israel's acceptance of the ceasefire after Trump's announcement. Iranian state media also declared the ceasefire in effect, though initially both sides had not officially confirmed acceptance3 5.
Final Barrage: Iran launched a "last-minute" wave of missiles just before the ceasefire deadline, targeting Israel, but hostilities ceased afterward3.

Effects on Markets and Commodities (Especially Oil)

Oil Price Volatility: Since the start of hostilities, oil prices rose by about 10%, with Brent crude briefly surpassing $74 a barrel after initial strikes. Prices later dipped as it became clear that critical energy infrastructure was not being targeted, but remained elevated due to ongoing uncertainty6 7.
Energy Infrastructure: Both Israel and Iran have suffered damage to energy facilities:
- Iran: South Pars gas field (shared with Qatar) saw partial production halts, and the Shahr refinery near Tehran and several fuel depots were targeted. The extent of damage is unclear, but any significant disruption could affect condensate and natural gas production6.
- Israel: Two of Israel’s three offshore natural gas fields (Leviathan and Karish) were shut down, reducing gas supply by nearly two-thirds. Israel is relying on coal and fuel oil for power generation as a result6.
Market Reaction: Despite eight consecutive days of Israeli airstrikes on Iran (OPEC’s third-largest crude producer), the oil market has shown restraint, with prices below $80 per barrel as of June 21. Analysts warn that prolonged conflict or attacks on key supply routes (such as the Strait of Hormuz) could lead to much sharper price increases7 6.

Summary Table: Key Events and Impacts

Date/Time	Event/Development	Impact/Outcome
June 23, early	Israel targets Fordow access roads, Basij, Evin	Disruption to Iranian security, energy
June 23, afternoon	Iran missile strike on Beer Sheva	3 killed, 6 injured in Israel
June 23, evening	US announces ceasefire, mediated by Qatar	Ceasefire terms set, both sides agree
June 24, pre-dawn	Iran launches final missile barrage	No new casualties reported
June 24, morning	Ceasefire takes effect	Hostilities cease, markets stabilize

Select Sources

CNN Live Updates (June 23): https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-us-strikes-06-23-25-intl-hnk1
CNN Live Updates (June 24): https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-conflict-us-trump-06-24-25-intl-hnk2
Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Special Report: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-special-report-june-23-2025-morning-edition4
CNBC on Oil Market Impact: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/21/how-regime-change-in-iran-could-affect-global-oil-prices.html7
Reuters on Energy Sector Toll: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/israel-iran-war-already-takes-toll-oil-gas-sector-2025-06-17/6
Al Jazeera on Ceasefire: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/24/israel-and-iran-agree-ceasefire-amid-waves-of-missiles3
TIME on Ceasefire Brokering: https://time.com/7297049/iran-israel-ceasefire-trump/5

(Full citations at the end of the report)

So What’s next?

Author comment.

There are no details of any terms or conditions the parties agreed to as part of the ceasefire — in fact, there may be none — which is only hours old and still shaky, so it’s too early for a full assessment. Moreover, this issue is not resolved and this is a strategic time out, not an end to hostilities. However, several things stand out.

Israel, Netananyahu Appear Weaker

Israel’s main war aim was to prevent Iran from building a nuclear weapon. It is doubtful that this was achieved and the attacks might even have accelerated the program (see below). And as was always known, Israel could not even attempt to hit the most guarded Iranian sites without US help and was heavily reliant on US ground and naval assets to protect the country from Iranian missiles.

This exposes Israeli military limitations — they have overwhelming military superiority but it is tactical, not strategic — but also potentially weakens Netananyahu’s politically. While he can rightfully claim to be the Prime Minister who took on Iran’s nuclear program, he can’t claim clear success as this was far from a decisive victory.

Iran’s Race to a Bomb is more Likely

It is now in everyone’s interest to agree that the Iranian nuclear program has been destroyed. America and Israel need that to claim victory, while Iran benefits from a ‘formal’ assessment that its nuclear program has been wiped out. However, it seems that Iran still has ~400 kg of enriched uranium which is now unaccounted for while other sites are still likely functional.

The race to a bomb scenario was always part of every assessment, but this would be the most logical path for Iran right now. (We’ll see if the modelling agrees.)

America, Trump Come out Strong

If you told a political science professor 10 years ago that a precise combination of phone calls, military action, and ALL CAPS SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS could stop a war between Israel and Iran — the war both sides describe as existential — she would at best be sceptical and at worst throw you off the course. Yet here we are.

So while the promised Ukrainian deal and an end to the Gaza conflict elude him, President Trump gets to take a victory lap at NATO this week as the architect of the Israel-Iran ceasefire (and at least by his telling, India-Pakistan).

A fully-updated assessment will be published tomorrow (Wednesday)

Thank you for your attention to this matter…

🇳🇪 Niger Nationalizes Uranium Mine

Niger's military government announced it will nationalize the Somair uranium mine, operated by French nuclear firm Orano, accusing the company of taking a disproportionate 86.3% of production since 1971, despite holding only a 63% stake. Orano, which is 90% state-owned by France, threatened legal action and called the move part of a "systematic policy of stripping mining assets." The nationalisation reflects Niger's broader pivot away from former colonial ruler France toward Russia following the 2023 military coup. More - Al Jazeera

🇮🇳 India Blames Pakistan for Kashmir Attack

Indian investigators claim all three attackers in April's deadly Pahalgam tourist assault were Pakistani nationals from the banned Lashkar-e-Taiba group, contradicting earlier reports that one was local. The National Investigative Agency arrested two Kashmir residents for allegedly sheltering the attackers who killed 26 people at the popular Baisaran tourist spot. The attack triggered major escalation between the nuclear-armed neighbors, including India's revocation of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty and cross-border missile strikes before a US-brokered ceasefire on May 10. More - BBC

Americas Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago, 🇺🇸 United States Of America, 🇻🇪 Venezuela

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda, 🇧🇧 Barbados, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇩🇲 Dominica, 🇬🇩 Grenada, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis, 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas, 🇺🇾 Uruguay

Regional News Summary

Brazil's economy is showing signs of growth, with Petrobras investing to double refinery output, which is expected to enhance the country's fuel independence. Additionally, Vale's Bacaba Copper Project is poised to mark a significant advancement in Brazil's mining sector. However, the nation continues to grapple with financial strain, as record debt and defaults signal increasing economic challenges. Petrobras is also under pressure to pay extra dividends crucial for Brazil's budget, highlighting the delicate balance between growth and fiscal responsibility [SOURCE - Rio Times Online].

In the automotive sector, Brazil and Argentina are deepening ties, reshaping trade dynamics in South America. Nestlé's commitment of $1.3 billion to Brazil reflects confidence in local growth and supply chains, although the influx of cheap electric cars from China has sparked backlash from local industries [SOURCE - Rio Times Online].

The World Economic Forum has recognized Brazil as a leader in Latin America's energy transition, despite ongoing environmental protests against the auctioning of Amazon oil sites. This juxtaposition of progress and protest underscores the complexities of Brazil's energy landscape [SOURCE - Rio Times Online].

In São Paulo, thousands are protesting against Brazil's ties with Israel, reflecting a growing discontent among certain segments of the population. Concurrently, conservative momentum is rising, with Bolsonarists gaining parity with supporters of President Lula, indicating a shifting political landscape [SOURCE - ABNA24].

Brazil is also making strides in health independence, particularly in mRNA vaccine development, as it aims to bolster its healthcare capabilities. Additionally, the country has declared itself free from bird flu, paving the way for the resumption of exports [SOURCE - Mercopress].

The situation at the Mexico-US border remains tense, with asylum seekers stuck in Mexico seeking assistance from other countries. President Trump has intensified calls for ICE raids, raising concerns about the treatment of migrants. Meanwhile, Mexico is pursuing a new deal with the US on border security and migration, reflecting the ongoing complexities of bilateral relations [SOURCE - Voice of San Diego].

Mexico has recently been impacted by Category 4 Hurricane Erick, which has raised concerns about mudslides and flash flooding. The storm's landfall on the Pacific Coast has compounded existing security issues, as rising crime rates have prompted Albuquerque to call in the National Guard for assistance [SOURCE - The Journal].

In a separate incident, a British family's vacation in Mexico was marred by a hotel shoot-out, underscoring the ongoing security challenges faced by the country [SOURCE - BBC].

Argentina is bracing for a judicial decision that could have significant implications for its political landscape, particularly regarding ex-President Cristina Kirchner's corruption case. The ruling is expected to provoke widespread protests from her supporters, while the current government remains firm against granting her a pardon [SOURCE - The Rio Times].

Argentina's economy is under strain, with rising unemployment and public sector job cuts contributing to a jobless rate of 12.8%. In an effort to stabilize the economy, the government has issued dollar bonds to assist struggling companies in repaying foreign debts. However, there are signs of easing inflation, as wholesale prices have dropped for the first time under the current administration [SOURCE - The Rio Times].

Venezuela continues to face severe economic challenges, with the Bolívar rapidly losing value amid hyperinflation and economic mismanagement. Residents in El Dorado are resorting to trading gold for groceries, highlighting the desperation of the population. Despite these challenges, opposition leader María Corina Machado believes Venezuela can attract investment to revitalize its economy [SOURCE - Rio Times Online].

Carpe tomorrow!