Good morning.

Next Wednesday is ‘Liberation Day’: the day when the off-again, on-again US tariffs are imposed across the board but the administration continues to change and adjust what is or is not potentially being targeted so this Bloomberg tracker is very useful. Meanwhile, in addition to the complexities of reciprocal tariffs, President Trump is also threatening ‘secondary tariffs’.

🚢 Secondary Tariffs: Trump's New Trade Weapon

President Trump introduced "secondary tariffs" on countries buying Venezuelan oil, threatening 25% penalties on US trade with nations that purchase petroleum from the Latin American country. The unprecedented move combines elements of traditional tariffs with secondary sanctions, giving Secretary of State Rubio discretion to implement the penalties starting April 2. The order specifically mentions potential application to China, Hong Kong and Macau, signaling Trump's preference for tariffs over financial sanctions which he believes could harm the dollar. More - Bloomberg

🇧🇮 Burundi Accuses Rwanda of Attack Plot

Burundi's President Ndayishimiye accused Rwanda of planning to attack his country and supporting rebel groups, citing "credible intelligence" in an exclusive BBC interview. He alleged Rwanda organized a 2015 coup attempt against Burundi and currently supports the Red Tabara rebels in a strategy similar to Rwanda's backing of M23 forces in eastern DR Congo. Rwanda dismissed the accusations as "surprising," insisting the neighbors are cooperating on border security despite their year-long closed frontier. Ndayishimiye stressed Burundi's preference for dialogue while warning they "will not sit idle if attacked." More - BBC

Live Country Data, Connected in Minutes

We’re all short of time and one thing I am incredibly focused on with Decis is getting you the information you need as easily and quickly as possible. Why would you have to jump through hoops to set up a data service or wait for the analyst to get you a country brief?

So when I built the API, the intent was to make everything as smooth as possible: the sign up, coverage selection, connection to your systems.

What does that mean in reality?

It means you can be set up and connected in just a couple of minutes. Here’s how.

Try the API yourself - api.decis.ai 

(And if you beat my time, let me know.)

Americas Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas, 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago, 🇺🇸 United States Of America, 🇻🇪 Venezuela

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda, 🇧🇧 Barbados, 🇩🇲 Dominica, 🇬🇩 Grenada, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis, 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, 🇺🇾 Uruguay

Regional News Summary

Brazil's economy is showing signs of resilience, with President Lula predicting a growth rate of 3% for 2025, despite contrasting economic forecasts. This optimism is bolstered by a reported $9.5 billion surplus, attributed to rising revenues and declining expenditures. Furthermore, Brazil is leading the world in real wage growth post-pandemic, according to an OECD study, indicating a positive trend for its workforce [SOURCE - Rio Times].

In trade, Brazil has set new records for meat exports in 2024 and is poised for further growth in 2025. Additionally, it has secured the second position in global air conditioning production. However, tensions are rising with the United States over steel tariffs, as exporters prepare for potential impacts from ongoing negotiations [SOURCE - Rio Times].

On the environmental front, Brazil is enhancing agricultural ties with Africa through an expert exchange program and is attracting interest from TotalEnergies for green hydrogen production. However, the country is grappling with severe water shortages, with water levels shrinking significantly, raising concerns about sustainability [SOURCE - Rio Times].

In the realm of international relations, Brazil has stalled the approval of Israel's ambassador, escalating tensions with Prime Minister Netanyahu. Meanwhile, Brazil is expected to play a pivotal role in upcoming climate talks, as highlighted by the COP30 President-Designate [SOURCE - Folha].

Turning to Mexico, the political landscape is shifting as Claudia Sheinbaum gains popularity following her criticisms of former President Trump, a phenomenon dubbed the "Trump bump." However, the US has denied Mexico's request for water, citing non-compliance with a 1944 treaty, which has raised tensions between the two nations [SOURCE - Financial Times].

Economically, Mexico faces challenges, with forecasts suggesting a recession in 2025-2026. The country is also dealing with the repercussions of US tariffs, which are dampening its economic prospects. In response, car manufacturers are rushing to ship vehicles to the US ahead of impending tariffs [SOURCE - Rio Times].

In terms of security, Mexico has made significant arrests, including two leaders of the MS-13 gang, while the US has blacklisted a leader of a human smuggling group linked to a Mexican cartel. The country is also investigating a potential mass killing site, prompting calls for thorough investigations from human rights organizations [SOURCE - Mexico News Daily].

Venezuela continues to struggle economically, unveiling a strategy to maintain oil production without Chevron, which has exited due to US sanctions. Analysts predict a decline in oil production and revenue as a result of this exit [SOURCE - Rio Times]. The US has threatened severe sanctions against Venezuela if it does not accept deported migrants, further complicating the humanitarian situation [SOURCE - The Sun].

Colombia is experiencing political unrest, with President Gustavo Petro calling for a special election on labor and health reforms after a Senate commission rejected proposed changes. Despite the turmoil, the country reported a 2.65% economic growth, driven by the public sector [SOURCE - Rio Times].

In Canada, Prime Minister Carney has called for general election on April 28 amid rising tensions with the US over trade issues, with Trump's tariffs impacting various sectors, including breweries and maple syrup producers [SOURCE - NDTV]. The country is also taking steps to enhance its defense capabilities by purchasing Australian radar technology, signaling a shift in its security strategy [SOURCE - ECONOMIC TIMES].

Carpe tomorrow!