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Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus
Maduro Threatens 'Republic in Arms', Brazil Convenes BRICS Meeting on Trump Tariffs, Afghanistan Earthquake Kills Over 800, Day 1,286 of War in Ukraine

Good morning,
🇻🇪 Maduro Threatens 'Republic in Arms'
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro said he's ready to "declare a republic in arms" if attacked by US forces, claiming Washington's Caribbean naval deployment aims at regime change rather than combating drug cartels as officially stated. Maduro accused the US of sending "eight military ships with 1,200 missiles and a submarine targeting Venezuela," calling it "the biggest threat that has been seen on our continent in the last 100 years" as he deployed troops along borders and mobilized citizen militias. The US currently has two Aegis destroyers, a cruiser, and a nuclear submarine in Caribbean waters with potential expansion to include amphibious assault ships carrying 4,000 Marines, while Trump's administration doubled the bounty for Maduro's arrest to $50 million over unsubstantiated drug trafficking allegations that internal intelligence memos found no evidence supporting. More - Al Jazeera
🧱 Brazil Convenes BRICS Meeting on Trump Tariffs
Brazilian President Lula is organizing a virtual BRICS leaders meeting for Monday to discuss Trump's trade policy and rally support for multilateralism, though crafting a joint statement may prove difficult given varying US tariff rates across member nations. Brazil faces 50% tariffs after Trump demanded its Supreme Court halt former President Bolsonaro's coup trial, which begins Tuesday amid expectations of intensified US attacks including visa revocations for justices and sanctions on the presiding judge. The summit follows weekend meetings between China's Xi and India's Modi, plus Putin-Modi talks, with sources suggesting Modi's recent fallout with Trump could enable a stronger BRICS stance against tariffs compared to their July summit where Modi's Trump ties were seen as a stumbling block. More - Bloomberg
🇦🇫 Afghanistan Earthquake Kills Over 800
A 6.0 magnitude earthquake killed over 800 people and injured thousands in eastern Afghanistan's mountainous Kunar province, with survivors spending the night outdoors as entire villages were flattened and rescue operations struggled to reach remote areas. The shallow quake struck at 8km depth near Jalalabad, destroying 95% of some villages and overwhelming local hospitals already strained by tens of thousands of Afghans being deported from Pakistan. Several nations including China, India, the UK and Switzerland pledged aid as Taliban officials warned the death toll may rise significantly, with rescue teams using helicopters to reach blocked mountain areas where mud-brick homes collapsed and people remain trapped under rubble, compounding Afghanistan's severe drought and unprecedented hunger crisis. More - BBC
🇺🇦 Day 1,286 of War in Ukraine
It has been 1,286 days since Russia invaded Ukraine. Here’s a rundown of events from Al Jazeera
Americas Stability Ratings and News Summary
More Unstable
🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas, 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago, 🇺🇸 United States Of America, 🇻🇪 Venezuela
More Stable
No countries were more stable over this period
Unchanged
🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda, 🇧🇧 Barbados, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇩🇲 Dominica, 🇬🇩 Grenada, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, 🇺🇾 Uruguay
Regional News Summary
Brazil's relationship with China has strengthened, with the country becoming China's second-largest global investment target, reflecting the growing economic cooperation within the BRICS partnership. This surge in investment comes amid rising concerns in the United States, which has moved to block a $1.4 billion Chinese nickel deal in Brazil, citing fears over rare earth materials [SOURCE - The Rio Times].
Trade dynamics are also shifting, as Brazil grapples with the impact of U.S. tariffs. The Brazilian government plans to purchase domestic products affected by these tariffs, excluding coffee and beef, to support local producers. In retaliation, President Lula has authorized measures against the U.S. tariffs imposed during the Trump administration, highlighting ongoing trade tensions [SOURCE - India Today].
In Mexico, a record trade surplus with the U.S. has been reported, although steel exports have declined due to U.S. tariffs. In response, Mexico is considering raising tariffs on Chinese imports, a move seen as beneficial for U.S. interests [SOURCE - CGTN]. However, tensions are rising between Mexico and the U.S., with Mexican President Sheinbaum rejecting claims that cartels control Mexico City, while U.S. Senator Rubio plans a visit to Mexico amidst concerns over U.S. intervention in the region [SOURCE - Mexico News Daily].
In the realm of security, notorious Mexican drug lord Ismael 'El Mayo' Zambada has pleaded guilty to federal charges in the U.S., a development that could provide the government with significant leverage in its fight against drug cartels [SOURCE - Japan Today]. Meanwhile, tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela have escalated, with President Maduro deploying troops to the Colombian border amid accusations of a potential U.S. invasion [SOURCE - The Gateway Pundit].
In Haiti, the situation remains dire as gang violence escalates, prompting the UN to warn of a potential state collapse. The release of an Irish missionary kidnapped in Haiti offers a glimmer of hope amid the turmoil [SOURCE - UN News].
Turning to economic developments, Canada is facing challenges as its economy slipped into contraction, largely due to U.S. tariffs impacting exports. A U.S. appeals court has ruled that Trump's tariffs are illegal, yet the administration has not removed them, complicating trade relations [SOURCE - Times of India]. Meanwhile, Canada is strengthening ties with Germany and India, aiming to bolster trade relations [SOURCE - Azer News].
In the Caribbean, Saint Kitts and Nevis is diversifying its economy by reducing reliance on Citizenship by Investment programs and focusing on tourism, agriculture, and renewable energy. This includes a partnership with Egypt to develop infrastructure projects [SOURCE - Loop News].
Carpe tomorrow!
