Good morning,

🇮🇱 🇮🇷 Israel-Iran Conflict Update: June 16–17, 2025

Overview

The conflict between Israel and Iran has sharply escalated over the past 24 hours, with both countries exchanging missile and drone strikes, resulting in significant casualties, infrastructure damage, and global market volatility123.

Military and Civilian Developments

Israeli Strikes on Iran

• Israel continued its air campaign targeting Iranian military and nuclear facilities, including IRGC and Artesh Air Force positions in Tehran Province, and missile launch sites in Markazi and Qom provinces23.

• Israeli strikes destroyed a significant portion of Iran's ballistic missile launchers and military aircraft, with the IDF claiming to have achieved "full air supremacy" over Tehran23.

• Israeli attacks also targeted the Iranian state broadcaster IRIB in Tehran and damaged oil infrastructure, including the Bazan Oil Refinery in Haifa, which was shut down due to missile strikes23.

• Civilian casualties in Iran remain high, with reports indicating over 224 deaths and 1,277 injuries since the escalation began, the majority being civilians14.

Iranian Response

• Iran launched a new wave of missile and drone attacks on Israel, with over 545 drones and hundreds of missiles fired since June 1323.

• Missile strikes caused significant damage in Israeli cities, including Tel Aviv, Haifa, Petah Tikva, and Bnei Brak, resulting in at least 24 fatalities and over 390 injuries as of June 16435.

• Missile fragments reportedly struck the U.S. Embassy in Tel Aviv, and a school in Tel Aviv was also hit35.

• Iran claimed to have downed an Israeli F-35 fighter jet, a claim denied by Israel35.

Damage Assessment

Market and Commodity Impacts

Oil Prices

• Oil prices surged by more than 2% on June 17, with Brent crude rising to $74.40 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate to $73.11, reflecting heightened fears of supply disruptions67.

• The initial Israeli strikes caused a 7% jump in oil prices, though prices remain below 2024 averages due to market resilience and OPEC's spare capacity678.

• Analysts warn that a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could cause a dramatic spike in oil prices, though such a move is not currently anticipated8.

Broader Market Effects

• Global stock markets initially dipped but rebounded as investors assessed that the conflict, while serious, may not result in a prolonged disruption to oil supplies98.

• Safe-haven assets such as gold and the U.S. dollar have risen, with gold nearing record highs8.

• U.S. Treasury yields increased amid concerns about inflation from higher oil prices, though the impact is seen as likely temporary89.

Diplomatic and Political Context

• The G7 summit in Canada is focused on the Israel-Iran situation, with world leaders expressing concern about escalation and calling for diplomatic solutions1.

• U.S. President Donald Trump called for the evacuation of Tehran and urged for restraint, while also suggesting Iran is now more willing to negotiate following the Israeli strikes16.

• Iran has stated it will not negotiate with the U.S. until it completes its retaliation against Israel35.

Source Links

• Reuters: Israel-Iran conflict escalates, civilian casualties rise1

• Reuters: Oil prices rise amid Israel-Iran tensions6

• NYT: Oil Prices Drop, but Iran-Israel Conflict Raises Many Risks7

• AP: Israel warns 300,000 in Tehran to evacuate4

• ISW: Iran Update Special Report, June 16, 20252

• Wikipedia: June 2025 Iranian strikes on Israel3

• AllianzGI: Israel-Iran conflict market impact8

• Wikipedia: June 2025 Israeli strikes on Iran5

• NYT: Stocks Rebound as Investors Shrug Off Israel-Iran Conflict

🇳🇬 Nigeria Attack Kills 100 in East

At least 100 people were killed in an overnight attack by gunmen in Yelwata, Benue State, though government officials confirmed a lower toll of 45. Amnesty International condemned the "almost daily bloodshed" in the region and called on Nigerian authorities to end attacks that have caused massive displacement among farmers. The violence stems from ongoing clashes between Muslim Fulani herders and Christian farmers over access to land and water resources. More - Al Jazeera

🇲🇽 Mexican Mayor Shot Dead

Gunmen on motorcycles stormed a village hall in San Mateo Piñas, Mexico, and killed Mayor Lilia Gema García Soto during a meeting with another local official. The attack also wounded two municipal police officers, marking the second mayoral killing in Oaxaca state this year. Violence against local politicians has surged nationwide as criminal gangs target officials who resist their control, with federal agents now deployed to search for the four escaped gunmen. More - BBC

Americas Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇲 Dominica, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas, 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago, 🇺🇸 United States Of America, 🇻🇪 Venezuela

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda, 🇧🇧 Barbados, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇬🇩 Grenada, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis, 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, 🇺🇾 Uruguay

Regional News Summary

In Brazil, former President Jair Bolsonaro is facing a historic trial over allegations of attempting to overturn the results of the 2022 presidential election. This trial marks a pivotal moment in Brazilian politics, as it could set a precedent for accountability among political leaders. Meanwhile, Brazil's Finance Chief has emphasized the country's economic growth and efforts to achieve investment-grade status, highlighting a commitment to stabilizing consumer prices amidst inflationary pressures [SOURCE - The Rio Times]. In a move to bolster its agricultural sector, Brazil plans to impose a 5% tax on new agricultural and real estate credit bonds, a decision that may impact investment dynamics in these critical areas [SOURCE - Folha de São Paulo].

Environmental concerns are also at the forefront, as Brazil fast-tracks oil and highway projects that threaten the Amazon rainforest. This decision has drawn criticism from environmentalists and raises questions about the balance between economic development and ecological preservation [SOURCE - Jamaica Gleaner].

In Mexico, trade tensions with the United States appear to be easing as both nations move closer to a steel deal, which could alleviate some economic strains. General Motors has announced a significant $4 billion investment aimed at shifting production from Mexico to the U.S., reflecting the ongoing adjustments in manufacturing strategies amid changing trade policies [SOURCE - Yahoo Finance]. Additionally, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has expressed openness to meeting with U.S. President Trump at the upcoming G7 summit, signaling a potential thaw in diplomatic relations [SOURCE - The Rio Times].

However, immigration remains a contentious issue, as recent raids in Los Angeles have sparked concern in New Mexico, with Sheinbaum condemning the actions for their economic repercussions [SOURCE - Dimsum Daily]. The Trump administration's aggressive immigration policies have led to the deportation of individuals despite federal court orders, raising alarms about the treatment of migrants [SOURCE - SFist].

In Argentina, the political landscape is shifting dramatically as the Supreme Court upheld a six-year prison sentence for former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner over corruption charges, igniting a wave of support from left-wing leaders across South America [SOURCE - NBC News]. Concurrently, President Javier Milei has received Israel's Genesis Prize and plans to move Argentina's embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, reflecting a significant foreign policy shift [SOURCE - ABC News].

Carpe tomorrow!