Good morning,

Three headlines to start your day

🔻 US Market Fall Resumes Amid Trump-Fed Tensions

After the long weekend, US markets slumped Monday with the S&P 500 and other major indexes dropping around 2.5% as President Trump criticized Fed Chair Powell over interest rates. The dollar weakened to a 15-month low while gold surged above $3,400 an ounce amid growing investor concerns about Fed independence and global trade tensions. More - Bloomberg

🔭 Bloomberg also has this great look ahead to upcoming events that will indicate how Trump’s tariffs and uncertainty over the US economy are being felt and interpreted around the world.

🕊️ Speculation of Next Pope Begins

As preparations for the burial of Pope Francis get underway, the subsequent papal conclave to select his successor will be the largest in Catholic history with 135 eligible cardinals, creating an unpredictable outcome. Major contenders include Cardinals Bo from Myanmar, Tagle from the Philippines, and Italians Pizzaballa and Parolin, reflecting Francis's creation of a historically diverse College of Cardinals where Europeans no longer hold the majority. The conclave will begin 15-20 days after Francis's death. More - Washington Post

🇵🇸 Gaza Squeeze Increases as Aid Blockade Continues

The IDF has now designated 69% of Gaza as “no-go” areas, according to the UN, while Israel continues to deny requests to send food and aid into the enclave. More - Al Jazeera

Key Metrics

WTI is $61.99 (Down)

Low |- < ------------------| High

Wheat is $179.607 (Down)

Low | < -------------------| High

EuroDollar is $1.15 (Up)

Low |------------------- > | High

Graphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days

Metrics via AlphaVantage updated Apr 21 2025 20:11 UTC

Americas Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇲 Dominica, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇩 Grenada, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas, 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago, 🇺🇸 United States Of America, 🇻🇪 Venezuela

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda, 🇧🇧 Barbados, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis, 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, 🇺🇾 Uruguay

Regional News Summary

Brazil's economy is currently navigating a complex landscape of opportunities and challenges. The tourism sector is thriving, with a record influx of visitors in early 2025, bolstered by strategic growth initiatives and a focus on economic revitalization. This surge in tourism is expected to generate new jobs and stimulate economic activity. Additionally, Brazil is preparing to host the BRICS Leaders' Summit in July, which may open doors for increased investment and trade opportunities [SOURCE - Rio Times].

However, Brazil faces significant hurdles as well. A critical refining gap has solidified China's dominance in the export of essential minerals, raising concerns about Brazil's economic competitiveness. The country is grappling with structural deficits that have left its industrial sector languishing at the bottom of global rankings [SOURCE - Rio Times].

In the realm of trade, a notable shift is occurring as China is perceived to offer Brazil more opportunities and less risk compared to the United States, potentially reshaping investment dynamics between the two nations [SOURCE - Rio Times]. Meanwhile, Paraguayan corn exports are benefiting from rising Brazilian demand, further strengthening trade ties in the region [SOURCE - MercoPress].

In energy developments, BW Energy has committed $107 million to the Golfinho Boost project, which is expected to enhance oil and gas production in Brazil. Additionally, the country is set to auction 172 oil blocks in June, potentially attracting further investment [SOURCE - Yahoo Finance]. Chile is also making strides by accelerating the development of a transcontinental trade route that will connect Brazil with Asian markets, promising to bolster trade and investment opportunities [SOURCE - Rio Times].

On the defense front, concerns are mounting as Brazil's Army Chief has raised alarms over defense budget cuts, which could leave the nation vulnerable to emerging threats. In a contrasting move, Brazil has established new defense ties with Pakistan through a strategic memorandum of understanding, indicating a potential for increased cooperation in this sector [SOURCE - Rio Times].

Shifting focus to the US-Mexico border, tensions have escalated following the Trump administration's imposition of a 21% duty on tomatoes imported from Mexico, citing "antidumping" concerns. This decision has provoked outrage from Mexican officials, who claim they were caught off guard by the announcement. The tariff is expected to increase costs for US consumers, particularly affecting prices for fresh tomatoes [SOURCE - New York Post].

In related border news, the US Army has taken control of federal land along the New Mexico border, citing security and environmental concerns. California Governor Gavin Newsom has announced plans to sue the Trump administration over what he describes as "unlawful" tariffs [SOURCE - New York Post].

In economic developments, Honda has announced plans to relocate production from Mexico and Canada to the US, aiming to avoid potential tariffs. This move is expected to result in 90% of Honda's US sales being produced domestically [SOURCE - Yahoo Finance]. Meanwhile, Mexico is responding to the ongoing trade war with the US by targeting Chinese imports with tariffs and offering jobs to thousands of returned citizens as a countermeasure to Trump's deportation policies [SOURCE - Rio Times].

In political developments, the Trump administration has charged the leaders of the La Familia Michoacana cartel and is offering an $8 million reward for information leading to their capture. Mexico has expressed its discontent with US plans to establish a military base along the border, while President Claudia Sheinbaum has emphasized the importance of ongoing dialogue with the US following a productive call with Trump [SOURCE - CBS News].

In Argentina, the International Monetary Fund has projected a robust 5% growth for the country in 2025, following a slight trade balance surplus. The Argentine government has lifted foreign exchange restrictions, allowing non-residents to invest in the market, which has positively impacted the peso [SOURCE - Rio Times]. Additionally, Eni and YPF have signed a memorandum of understanding for an LNG project, further enhancing Argentina's energy sector [SOURCE - Yahoo Finance].

Carpe tomorrow!