Good morning.

The US and Russian foreign ministers are meeting in Riyadh to discuss a peace plan for Ukraine. The meetings will set the scene for future discussions but have deliberately excluded European and Ukrainian participants. [More - BBC]

Comment - These talks are taking place on the heels of last week’s comments by the US Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth, that Ukraine would have to concede land already held by Russia and that NATO membership was off the table. Meanwhile, US documents sent to Kyiv appear to demand significant reparations be paid to the US without any meaningful security guarantees in return. The framing of these negotiations is shocking European capitals — a feature, not a bug, of the US approach — but significantly weaken Europe, threaten to bankrupt Ukraine, and undercut trust in the US and the NATO alliance. A deal on these terms will be less Winston Churchillian and more Neville Chamberlain.

Live Country Data, Connected in Minutes

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Key Metrics

WTI is $72.73 (Down)

Low |-------- < -----------| High

Wheat is $185.794 (Up)

Low |--------- > ----------| High

EuroDollar is $1.05 (Down)

Low |------ < -------------| High

YuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)

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Graphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days

Metrics via AlphaVantage updated Feb 17 2025 21:16 UTC

Americas Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas, 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago, 🇺🇸 United States Of America, 🇻🇪 Venezuela

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda, 🇧🇧 Barbados, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇩🇲 Dominica, 🇬🇩 Grenada, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis, 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, 🇺🇾 Uruguay

Regional News Summary

Corruption continues to pose a significant threat to climate action in Brazil, as highlighted by Transparency International. The watchdog warns that corrupt practices within institutions often prioritize the interests of donors over local needs, undermining efforts to address climate change effectively. Brazil, a major emitter of greenhouse gases, faces challenges in its commitment to curbing carbon emissions amidst ongoing corruption scandals [SOURCE - The Daily Star].

Amidst these challenges, Brazil's economy is grappling with high inflation and rising costs. The government's temporary energy subsidies have provided some relief to the population, but investors are increasingly seeking safety overseas, leading to record fund outflows [SOURCE - The Rio Times].

In a bid to assert its economic independence, Brazil has initiated an antitrust lawsuit against major tech companies, signaling a pushback against US influence. This move aligns with Brazil's efforts to strengthen ties with regional partners while distancing itself from the US, particularly in light of recent trade tensions [SOURCE - The Rio Times].

On a more positive note, Brazil is projecting a record grain harvest of 325.7 million tons for the 2024-25 season, driven by favorable weather conditions. This anticipated increase is expected to influence global grain prices significantly [SOURCE - The Rio Times].

In Mexico, the economy faces several challenges, particularly due to international trade tensions. The country is pushing back against US tariffs on steel and aluminum, which are seen as detrimental to its manufacturing sector [SOURCE - Mexico News Daily]. However, there are also positive developments, such as significant discoveries in the mining sector that could attract further investments [SOURCE - Yahoo Finance].

Corruption remains a pressing issue in Mexico, as evidenced by a decline in the country's ranking on the Corruption Perceptions Index. This decline raises concerns about the government's effectiveness in combating corruption [SOURCE - Mexico News Daily].

In Argentina, President Javier Milei is making strides to overhaul the economy, with inflation falling to a five-year low and salaries outpacing inflation growth. These reforms are seen as crucial for stabilizing the economy [SOURCE - The Rio Times]. However, the government is also facing scrutiny over corruption, as evidenced by the voiding of a key waterway tender amid concerns [SOURCE - The Rio Times].

In the broader context of US foreign policy, the post-war international order is showing signs of strain, with the US struggling to maintain its leadership role globally. This is evident in various tensions with allies, particularly regarding support for Ukraine amidst the ongoing conflict with Russia [SOURCE - Bangkok Post].

Carpe tomorrow!