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Good morning.

A commentator on Bloomberg yesterday quoted the proverb “kill the chickens to frighten the monkeys” and explained how Trump’s tariffs on Mexico and Canada are actually a signal to China: ’See how tough I can be on my allies. Now imagine what I could do to you.’  Unfortunately, no matter how you make the monkeys feel, you’ve still killed a few chickens.

🇨🇳 Whatever his intent, Trump deferred the Mexico and Canada tariffs yesterday but left the restrictions in place for China. Now China has retaliated. From Bloomberg.

Trade experts classified China’s retaliation as measured and designed to make a point without inflaming the situation.

🇮🇱 Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet with President Trump today as his first official foreign guest at the White House. Trump is keen to end the conflict in Gaza and has significant influence on Netanyahu but ending the conflict would put the Israeli PM in a difficult position politically and personally. [More - Washington Post]

🇨🇩 The Rwandan-backed M23 rebels who hold the Goma region in the east of the Democratic Republic of the Congo delivered a ceasefire to allow humanitarian assistance to enter the areas. A regional peace summit is planned for this weekend.[More - AlJazeera]

Key Metrics

WTI is $73.51 (Down)

Low |--------- < ----------| High

Wheat is $185.794 (Up)

Low |--------- > ----------| High

EuroDollar is $1.03 (Down)

Low |-- < -----------------| High

YuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)

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Graphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days

Metrics via AlphaVantage updated Feb 03 2025 21:16 UTC

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Americas Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago, 🇺🇸 United States Of America, 🇻🇪 Venezuela

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda, 🇧🇧 Barbados, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇩🇲 Dominica, 🇬🇩 Grenada, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis, 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas, 🇺🇾 Uruguay

Regional News Summary

In Brazil, the job market is experiencing a historic low in unemployment, with over 1.7 million jobs added in 2024, defying economic headwinds. However, this positive trend is overshadowed by the Brazilian Central Bank's decision to hike interest rates amid President Lula's mounting challenges. This mixed economic signal reflects the complexities of Brazil's recovery efforts as it navigates both growth and inflationary pressures [SOURCE - Rio Times].

Meanwhile, Brazil's football star Neymar has returned to his roots, terminating his contract with Saudi club Al-Hilal and likely rejoining his boyhood club, Santos FC. This move not only marks a personal milestone for Neymar but also highlights the ongoing dynamics within the global sports industry [SOURCE - The Hindu].

In the realm of international relations, tensions between the United States and Mexico are escalating as President Trump reiterates his commitment to imposing a 25% tariff on Mexican goods. This move, aimed at addressing migration and security concerns, has been met with resistance from Mexican officials, who warn of potential retaliation against U.S. exports. The looming tariff threats could have significant economic implications for both nations, raising concerns about a potential trade war [SOURCE - Mexico News Daily].

As the U.S. grapples with its foreign policy, the Trump administration's hardline stance on immigration has led to the revocation of protections for Venezuelans in the U.S. This decision has further strained relations with Venezuela, although recent agreements have been made regarding the repatriation of undocumented migrants [SOURCE - Economic Times].

In Colombia, diplomatic tensions with the U.S. have also surfaced, particularly concerning the deportation of Colombian nationals from the U.S. The Colombian government initially resisted accepting deportees but ultimately agreed under pressure, highlighting the delicate balance of bilateral relations [SOURCE - OC Register].

Amid these geopolitical tensions, the economic landscape in Latin America is shifting. Argentina is making strides to boost its economy by slashing luxury car taxes and courting foreign investment, particularly in energy and lithium production. This proactive approach aims to stimulate growth and attract international partners [SOURCE - Rio Times].

In Ecuador, the shrimp industry faces challenges due to late Chinese live volumes impacting prices, but the country is optimistic about its oil investment plans, aiming for a $42 billion boost to its reserves [SOURCE - Rio Times].

Carpe tomorrow!

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