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🕊️ Statements from officials in Doha and Washington indicate that a peace deal between Israel and Hamas is close to agreement. Several influential Israeli politicians on the right vehemently oppose a ceasefire and a similar deal has been under discussion since May last year so a breakthrough is not guaranteed. [More - BBC]

🇱🇧 Lebanon’s President Aoun invited Nawaf Salam, the head of the International Court of Justice, to be Prime Minister. Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati had been seen as Hezbollah’s preferred candidate, and Salam’s selection is an indication that the group’s political power has diminished along with its military capability.

🇺🇸 Hearings for Donald Trump’s picks for senior positions begin today with many expected to be contentions sessions, particularly Pete Hesgeth for Defense. [More - BBC]

📈 Advisors to incoming Preside Trump are reportedly alarmed at the possibility of massive spikes in inflation and rising consumer costs if Trump’s range of tariffs is enacted. Some advisors are reportedly advocating a gradual increase of between 2% and 5% monthly to gradually increase pressure without causing market shocks within the US. [More - Bloomberg]

Key Metrics

WTI is $74.31 (Down)

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Wheat is $185.735 (Down)

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EuroDollar is $1.02 (Down)

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YuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)

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Graphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days

Metrics via AlphaVantage updated Jan 13 2025 21:16 UTC

Americas Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda, 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago, 🇻🇪 Venezuela

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇧🇧 Barbados, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇩🇲 Dominica, 🇬🇩 Grenada, 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis, 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas, 🇺🇸 United States Of America, 🇺🇾 Uruguay

Regional News Summary

Brazil's economy is showing resilience in 2024, with Finance Minister Fernando Haddad projecting a growth rate of 3.6% despite facing challenges such as record capital outflows and a shrinking trade surplus. The government remains optimistic, even in the face of potential U.S. tariff hikes, asserting that the sector can withstand disruptions. This confidence is reflected in a credit-fueled surge in new vehicle sales, which rose by 14.15% this year. Additionally, Brazil's coffee exports have surged by 12.4%, leading the increase in South America's coffee shipments, while the soybean forecast indicates a significant shift in global markets with a record expected for 2025 [SOURCE - Rio Times].

In the realm of technology and social media, Brazil has demanded that Meta clarify its new fact-checking policies, citing concerns over their impact on democracy. A Brazilian judge has also mandated that Big Tech companies comply with local laws to continue operating in the country [SOURCE - Barrons].

Tourism in Brazil has thrived, welcoming a record 6.65 million foreign tourists in 2024, which bodes well for the country's economy. Infrastructure development has also received a boost, with Petrobras extending its contract with Prosafe SE, indicating ongoing investment in the sector [SOURCE - Rio Times].

Meanwhile, Mexico is grappling with significant changes in its immigration policy, having dropped thousands of migrants in Cancun, far from the U.S. border. This shift marks a departure from previous practices of sending Central American migrants to border cities. The number of minor migrants crossing through Mexico has surged by 514% over the past six years, raising concerns about the welfare of these vulnerable populations [SOURCE - Daily Excelsior].

In economic terms, Mexico is facing inflation challenges similar to those seen globally, which has affected its stock market performance. The country is also dealing with the ramifications of rising drug-related violence, with authorities seizing fentanyl in major cities. The previous U.S. administration's threats to label Mexican drug cartels as terrorist organizations could escalate tensions further [SOURCE - Rio Times].

Argentina's economic outlook appears cautiously optimistic, with projections of 4.5% growth in 2025 and inflation cooling to under 10%. However, skepticism remains regarding the sustainability of the current economic system under President Javier Milei's libertarian approach. The government has made strides in rebuilding international trust by paying out $4.3 billion to bondholders, which is expected to attract more investment, particularly in the lithium sector [SOURCE - Reuters].

In Venezuela, the political climate is tense as President Nicolás Maduro prepares for his third term amid increased police and military presence in Caracas. The opposition has vowed to protest against what they deem illegitimate election results, leading to arrests of several opposition leaders. The Maduro administration has also escalated its rhetoric against the United States, further straining relations [SOURCE - EL PAÍS].

In the broader context of the Americas, Canada is facing potential trade wars with the U.S. as former President Donald Trump threatens to impose serious tariffs. Canadian economists argue that such measures could lead to a global trade war, prompting Canada to prepare retaliatory tariffs to protect its trade and employment [SOURCE - CBC].

Carpe tomorrow!