Good morning. Before we cover Monday’s frenetic Day One for the incoming Trump administration, some stark images and statistics illustrate the immense challenge that still lies ahead for the Palestinians.

🇵🇸 There are estimates that 92% of housing in Gaza has been destroyed. So, while the current ceasefire allows families to move back into cleared areas, very few have homes to go to. [More - BBC]

Moreover, the infrastructure is similarly damaged with water, sewage treatment, power and medical facilities capable of supporting only a fraction of the enclave’s population.

Even if the ceasefire becomes permanent, a decades-long rebuilding effort lies ahead.

🇺🇸 Monday was a flurry of activity for the incoming Trump administration, starting with the President’s inaugural speech. Trump painted a dark picture of America in decline and attacked the previous administration while repeating many campaign promises with respect to trade and the border. He also addressed several less prominent themes: reinstating previously discharged service members who had refused the COVID vaccine, announcing that the US government would only recognize two genders, and ordering Denali be renamed Mt McKinley.

✍️ The real work started Monday evening when Trump began signing executive orders on stage at the indoor celebration and later in the Oval Office. As per the White House website , 41 executive orders were issued.

The Washington Post has a summary of the major Executive Orders here

There are hundreds of pages in these Orders, which will take days to understand properly, but the effects of some were immediate. The CBP One App, used by asylum seekers to book immigration appointments, was closed at noon on Monday and all existing appointments booked through the app were canceled. [More - CBS News]

Notably, there was no formal declaration of tariffs, but the President mentioned trade restrictions several times, and his commercial team is still awaiting confirmation, so the delay seems more administrative than a signal that there has been a change of heart.

On to the numbers.

Key Metrics

WTI is $79.57 (Down)

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Wheat is $185.735 (Down)

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EuroDollar is $1.04 (Down)

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YuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)

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Graphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days

Metrics via AlphaVantage updated Jan 20 2025 21:16 UTC

Americas Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇩🇲 Dominica, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago, 🇺🇸 United States Of America, 🇻🇪 Venezuela

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda, 🇧🇧 Barbados, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇬🇩 Grenada, 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis, 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas, 🇺🇾 Uruguay

Regional News Summary

Brazil's economy is on a promising growth trajectory, with projections indicating continued expansion into 2025. The country has recently ascended to the eighth position in global vehicle production, surpassing Spain, and iron ore exports have rebounded to pre-Brumadinho levels, signaling a recovery in the mining sector. Additionally, Brazil's exports have reached record highs, particularly in the U.S. market, reflecting a robust trade performance amid looming tariff threats from the Trump administration [SOURCE - The Rio Times].

However, challenges persist. Residential rents have risen by 13.5% in 2024, marking the lowest increase in recent years, while interest rates have surged following the largest bond auction in 18 months, potentially impacting economic stability [SOURCE - The Rio Times].

In the energy sector, Brazil is exploring cost-cutting measures by importing energy from Venezuela, while its clean energy sector has shown positive growth [SOURCE - The Rio Times]. Nevertheless, concerns about the impact of U.S. tariffs on Brazil's energy sector remain a topic of discussion [SOURCE - Live Mint].

Infrastructure development is also a focus, with DP World accelerating expansion plans for the Santos Container Terminal, a critical project for enhancing Brazil's logistics capabilities [SOURCE - The Rio Times]. Furthermore, the government has announced plans to overhaul the tax system, which could positively impact businesses and the economy [SOURCE - The Rio Times].

In agriculture, Brazil's soybean sector is witnessing a shift as Chinese buyers turn to cheaper Brazilian soybeans ahead of Trump's return, contributing to record-high exports to the U.S. [SOURCE - Investing.com].

Meanwhile, Mexico is experiencing significant economic developments as Amazon announced a $5 billion investment to build a data center, bolstering the country's digital economy [SOURCE - IBTimes]. In retail, Chedraui plans to open 144 new stores in 2025, indicating a positive trend in the sector [SOURCE - The Yucatan Times].

However, the rise in U.S. tariffs has prompted American companies to shift supply chains to Mexico, potentially impacting migration patterns as some migrants self-deport in response to changing economic conditions [SOURCE - Investing.com]. The designation of Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations has heightened tensions, raising fears of deportations affecting thousands of Yucatecans [SOURCE - The Yucatan Times].

In the U.S., the Biden administration has lifted Cuba's designation as a state sponsor of terrorism, a significant diplomatic shift aimed at improving relations. This move is expected to facilitate the release of political prisoners in Cuba, marking a potential thaw in U.S.-Cuban relations [SOURCE - PBS NewsHour]. Critics, however, caution that this policy may be reversed under a future Trump administration [SOURCE - The Conversation].

As the geopolitical landscape shifts, the U.S. faces challenges from China's military advancements, raising concerns about preparedness in the face of growing threats [SOURCE - National Interest]. In response, U.S. officials are considering actions against China's targeting of key sectors, reflecting ongoing tensions in international relations [SOURCE - RTT News].

Carpe tomorrow!