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UK Riots, Ukrainian Troops Strike Deep into Russia and a New Leader in Bangladesh

Decis SITREP for August 12 2024

Author

Andrew Sheves
August 12, 2024 • Time to Enlightenment...14 minutes

Good morning.

This week, we’re looking at the recent violent anti-immigration protests by far-right mobs in the UK alongside Ukraine’s surprise offensive deep into Russian territory. Plus, things have calmed dramatically in Bangladesh as the new Prime Minster settles in.

(By the way, this week’s newsletter is a bit of an experiment as I am letting the AIs do the majority of the writing for the updates. Let me know what you think.)

But first, the stability matrix.

Reminder: a downward arrow signifies the location is more turbulent, whereas an upward arrow means calmer

Is somewhere important to you missing? Hit ‘reply’ and we’ll get them added to the matrix.

Events of interest that we’re monitoring.

🇬🇧 United Kingdom

Currently, the UK is rated as Highly Stable but More Turbulent than normal

Recent Riots and Protests in the UK

Assessment via Perplexity AI

Background and Causes

Since July 30, 2024, the United Kingdom has experienced a series of riots and protests primarily driven by far-right groups and anti-immigration sentiments. These events were triggered by a mass stabbing in Southport on July 29, where three children were killed. Social media misinformation falsely accused the attacker of being a Muslim and an asylum seeker, which fueled the unrest[1][4].

Nature and Spread of the Riots

The riots began in Southport and quickly spread to various locations across England and Northern Ireland. The disturbances have been characterized by racist attacks, arson, and looting, marking the most significant civil disorder in the UK since the 2011 England riots. In Hull, rioters attacked police, set vehicles on fire, and looted shops, resulting in injuries to 11 police officers and the arrest of 25 individuals[1].

In Northern Ireland, protests and violence erupted in Belfast, where anti-immigration and anti-racism demonstrators clashed. Rioters attacked immigrant-owned businesses, and violence continued in areas like Sandy Row, where immigrant-owned establishments were set ablaze[1].

Government and Law Enforcement Response

The UK government and law enforcement agencies have been on high alert, with thousands of police officers deployed to manage the situation. As of the latest reports, 741 individuals have been arrested, with 302 charged in connection with the riots[1][5].

Counter-Protests and Public Reaction

In response to the far-right riots, thousands of anti-racism protesters have mobilized across the UK. On August 7, large gatherings were held to counter planned far-right rallies and to express solidarity with refugees and ethnic minority communities. These demonstrators formed protective barriers around locations such as immigration centers, which were potential targets for far-right groups[2][5].

Current Situation and Outlook

As of August 10, 2024, the intensity of the riots appears to have peaked, but tensions remain high. The situation has put the UK government under significant pressure, and there is concern that further unrest could occur[3]. The ongoing disinformation and societal divisions suggest that while the immediate violence may have subsided, underlying issues persist, potentially leading to future disturbances[3][4].

In conclusion, the recent riots in the UK highlight the volatile intersection of misinformation, far-right politics, and immigration issues. The government's ability to address these challenges effectively will be crucial in preventing further unrest and fostering social cohesion.

Sources:

[2] CNN

[3] CNN

[4] Reuters

[5] Reuters

Decis News summary for the UK for the week August 5th to August 11th

This week's critical events in the United Kingdom included ongoing social unrest, governmental responses to riots, and international diplomatic concerns. The UK faced significant challenges with widespread riots, prompting the government to consider establishing a "standing army" of police to quell future disturbances [SOURCE]. The Crown Prosecution Service charged around 100 individuals in connection with the riots [SOURCE].

Ongoing issues of note were the increasing concerns over free speech and law enforcement overreach. A UK police commissioner made headlines by threatening to extradite and jail US citizens over online posts, raising questions about international jurisdiction and freedom of expression [SOURCE]. This move has sparked debate about the balance between combating online hate speech and protecting civil liberties. In response to the recent unrest, the UK government announced plans to train school children to spot fake news, aiming to address misinformation that may have contributed to the riots [SOURCE]. Additionally, the country is grappling with a surge in antisemitic incidents, with nearly 2,000 reported in just six months, shattering previous records [SOURCE].

On the international front, the UK called for a UN-led probe in Bangladesh amid ongoing protests [SOURCE], demonstrating the country's continued engagement in global affairs despite domestic challenges. The government also announced plans to crack down on overseas hiring, citing concerns that the current system is not operating in the national interest [SOURCE]. These events collectively paint a picture of a nation grappling with internal social tensions, while simultaneously navigating complex international relationships and policy challenges.

🇺🇦 Ukraine / 🇷🇺 Russia

Ukraine is Unstable and More Turbulent than normal

Russia is Weak and More Turbulent than normal

Ukrainian Troops Take Significant Ground in Russia

Prepared using the Decis App Chat with inputs from the BBC, Associated Press and Atlantic Council

Overview

Ukrainian forces have launched a significant military incursion into Russia's Kursk region, with reports suggesting that troops have advanced up to 30km into Russian territory. This marks the deepest and most significant incursion since the start of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Russian authorities have scrambled to contain the breach, with reports of evacuations, declarations of states of emergency, and mobilization of troops to the border.

Key Events

Ukrainian troops have captured several settlements in the Kursk region, including the village of Guevo, where they removed the Russian flag from an administrative building. Russian authorities have reported engaging Ukrainian forces near the villages of Tolpino and Obshchy Kolodez, with both sides claiming victories. The attack has caught Russia off guard, with Ukrainian-backed sabotage groups launching intermittent cross-border incursions in the past. Russia has retaliated with missile strikes on Kyiv, killing two people, including a 4-year-old boy.

Potential Implications:  

The incursion may force Russia to redeploy forces away from eastern Ukraine, potentially relieving pressure on Ukrainian defences. Ukraine's military success may strengthen its position in future negotiations with Russia, potentially leading to increased international pressure on Moscow to cease hostilities.

The incursion may also lead to an escalation of the conflict, with potential for further large-scale military operations and civilian casualties. The involvement of North Korean-manufactured missiles in the conflict raises concerns about the extensive military support provided to Russia by Pyongyang.

Expert Analysis

The Atlantic Council's experts believe that the attack may have strategic significance, showcasing Ukraine's cunning, audacity, and tenacity against a superior foe. The incursion may also demonstrate Ukraine's determination to incorporate politico-psychological warfare into purely military operations.

The experts caution that while the raid may be a success, entering and seizing land is different from holding it, and Ukraine's ultimate goal is to demonstrate its capability to its partners, potentially leading to further diplomatic and military support.

Conclusion

The Ukrainian incursion into Russia's Kursk region marks a significant development in the ongoing conflict, with potential implications for the future of the war. The international community must remain vigilant and continue to provide support to Ukraine, while also working to prevent further escalation and promote a peaceful resolution.

Sources

News summary for Ukraine for the week August 5th to August 11th

This week's critical events included Ukraine's deployment of F-16 fighter jets, marking a potential turning point in the conflict [SOURCE]. In a bold move, Ukrainian forces launched a surprise incursion into Russia's Kursk region, penetrating up to 10 kilometers and triggering fierce clashes [SOURCE]. This offensive has continued for several days, with Russia battling to repel the attack [SOURCE]. Ongoing issues of note were the escalation of tensions, with Russia warning that peace terms for Ukraine will only get worse [SOURCE]. Ukraine, on the other hand, claims that Western allies are too fearful of escalation with Russia [SOURCE].

The conflict continues to have global implications, with the European Council approving $4.59 billion in aid for Ukraine [SOURCE], and European gas prices rising to a 2024 high due to concerns over Ukrainian pipelines [SOURCE]. The war's impact extends beyond the battlefield, with a Russian pianist dying in jail after criticizing Moscow's actions in Ukraine [SOURCE], and Ukraine diverting more funding towards its missile program [SOURCE]. As the conflict intensifies, both sides are focusing attacks on each other's supply lines [SOURCE], indicating a potential shift strategies.

Want In-Depth Ukraine Coverage?

If you want much more in-depth coverage of the war in Ukraine, please check out the Riley Risk Sentinel special Ukraine coverage. Marko and his team produce a very in-depth weekly report that will give you the detailed coverage you’re looking for.

🇧🇩 Bangladesh

Bangladesh is Stable but More Turbulent than normal

Summary from ChatGPT

Bangladesh is undergoing significant political upheaval. The Chief Justice, Obaidul Hassan, and five other top judges resigned amid pressures from new protests as the interim government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, took office. This follows a mass uprising that forced former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to resign and flee to India. Yunus's government, which includes civil society members and student protest leaders, aims to introduce reforms and prepare for elections. The country is experiencing continued unrest, with calls for a non-corrupt judiciary and broader democratic reforms. Yunus, facing legal challenges himself, has pledged to uphold and restore law and order, emphasizing unity and the protection of all citizens.

Sources

News summary for Bangladesh for the week - August 5th to August 11th

This week's critical events in Bangladesh were marked by significant political unrest and its ripple effects across the region. The country saw the ousting of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and the installation of an interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus [SOURCE]. This transition sparked widespread protests and violence, including attacks on Hindu minorities and their establishments [SOURCE]. The unrest has had significant international repercussions. India suspended train services to Bangladesh indefinitely [SOURCE] and closed its visa centers in the country [SOURCE]. The crisis has also impacted Indian companies with investments in Bangladesh, particularly in the FMCG and textile sectors [SOURCE].

Ongoing issues of note included heightened border security measures taken by India, with states like Assam, Meghalaya, and Manipur increasing vigilance along the Indo-Bangladesh border [SOURCE]. The Indian government formed a committee to monitor the situation along the border [SOURCE]. Internationally, the United States urged the Bangladesh interim government to respect democratic principles [SOURCE], while protests erupted in various countries, including the UK and US, over the violence against Hindus in Bangladesh [SOURCE]. The situation remains fluid, with concerns about the safety of minorities, economic impacts, and potential regional instability continuing to dominate discussions about Bangladesh's immediate future.

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Final Factoid

The final medal top-ten standings after this year’s Olympics - see the full list from the Washington Post here

That’s it for today.

Let me know what you think about the AI-driven reports: there are definitely some differences between the tools, but I’m curious about what you think.

Carpe tomorrow!