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  • Ukraine Anniversary Offensive, Nigerian Elections, plus custom reports.

Ukraine Anniversary Offensive, Nigerian Elections, plus custom reports.

Good morning.

Two quick updates today plus the customized risk / opportunity ratings.

Russia on the Offense Prior to February 24

Russia appears to be building up for a concentrated offensive in Ukraine to coincide with next week’s one-year anniversary of its invasion. Additional missile strikes took place on Thursday morning and Russian forces appear to be making progress in taking the city of Bakhmut which would put them within striking distance of other major cities in the northwest Donetsk region. See Reuters for more.

Nigerian Elections: Strong Showing by Third-Party Candidate Peter Obi 

Nigeria’s presidential election is stil a couple of weeks away but third-party candidate, Peter Obi, is doing well in the polls and is a strong contender to win the election.

Image Pius Utomi Ekpei via AFP.

Although a lot may happen before election day – such as the trouble with the country’s planned currency switch – even if unsuccessful, Obi’s performance seems set to break the two-party status quo that many Nigerians have complained about.

On to the customized numbers

(Still not sure of how to use these metrics in your risk analysis? There’s a cheat sheet at the bottom of the email but the user’s guide is here. Want to know more? Read the white paper.)

Relative Values (90-Days)

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Trends (21-days)

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The normal metrics are included in the customized SITREP below.

PRO users get these reports emailed to them daily to help with their situational awareness and decision-making. Start a PRO trial here.

Here’s the Daily SITREP for Tarjuman LLC for February 16, 2023

Current risk profile

Shipping

Summary

The Shipping (FBX) index is currently $1995.

Shipping (FBX) is very low for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased moderately over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation.

Risk Profile

For Tarjuman LLC, shipping presents a Significant opportunity.

Response considerations

Impliment contingencies:

Pre-book next quarter’s shipments

Wheat

Summary

Wheat is currently $682.25.

Wheat is very high for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days with little flutuation.

Risk Profile

For Tarjuman LLC, wheat presents a Low risk.

Response considerations

Conduct routine monitoring

Market Volatility

Summary

The Market Volatility (VIX) is currently 18.91.

Market Volatility (VIX) is very low for this 90-day interval. The index ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after moderate fluctuation.

Risk Profile

For Tarjuman LLC, volatility presents a Critical opportunity.

Response considerations

Impliment contingencies:

Look for competitors in distress and consider buy-out

Iron and Steel

Summary

The Iron and Steel index is currently $147.51.

Iron and Steel is very high for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after slight fluctuation.

Risk Profile

For Tarjuman LLC, iron and steel present a Low opportunity.

Response considerations

Conduct routine monitoring

Oil

Summary

Brent Crude futures are currently $81.94.

Brent Crude is high for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation.

Risk Profile

For Tarjuman LLC, oil prices present a Low risk.

Response considerations

Conduct routine monitoring

Palate cleanser

Catwalks became dog walks at New York’s Fashion Week last week during the runway during ‘CatWalk FurBaby show’. Presumably, the cats were busy.

Image: Reuters/Jeenah Moon