Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Yoon arrested in Seoul, mining siege in South Africa and EU considers additional Russian sanctions

Good morning.

🇰🇷 Police in South Korea finally arrested ousted President Yoon Suk Yeol in relation to his impeachment in early January following his imposition of martial law in December. Yoon has been avoiding police and refusing to cooperate with the authorities since his removal from power in December.[More - BBC]

🇿🇦 South African police rescued 82 trapped miners and recovered the bodies of 36 more from an illegal mine in Stilfontein, south of Johannesburg. Hundreds more miners remain trapped underground. Mining organizations accuse the police of sealing the miners underground, while the police argue that the miners refuse to leave the mine for fear of arrest. [More - Al Jazeera]

🇪🇺 The EU is considering additional sanctions against Russia, banning imports of aluminum and LNG. LNG delivered by pipeline would likely remain exempt as Poland and Hungary remain reliant on Russia for piped gas. [More - Bloomberg]

Key Metrics

WTI is $74.31 (Down)

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Wheat is $185.735 (Down)

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EuroDollar is $1.03 (Down)

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YuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)

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Graphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days

Metrics via AlphaVantage updated Jan 14 2025 21:15 UTC

Europe Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇱 Albania, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom

Europe News Summary

Switzerland is stepping into the international spotlight, offering to mediate a meeting between former US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, a move that could significantly influence global diplomatic relations [SOURCE - AzerNews]. Swiss President Alain Berset has also expressed the country's readiness to facilitate discussions aimed at resolving the ongoing conflict in Ukraine [SOURCE - TASS].

However, Switzerland faces domestic challenges, including a proposal from the Swiss employers' association to combat wage dumping, which has been impacting the job market [SOURCE - Swissinfo.ch]. Additionally, the rise of empty office spaces is raising concerns about the economic outlook [SOURCE - Swissinfo.ch].

As the World Economic Forum approaches, the Swiss army will be deployed to ensure security, reflecting Switzerland's increasing alignment with NATO, as indicated by the largest party in the Swiss parliament [SOURCE - Swissinfo.ch]. In a notable advancement in healthcare, Roche has received FDA clearance for its high-volume slide scanner, marking a significant step in digital pathology [SOURCE - Investing.com].

In France, the government is urging the European Commission to adopt a firmer stance against Elon Musk's influence within the EU, reflecting growing concerns about his impact on European policies [SOURCE - The Hindu].

Meanwhile, the situation in Chad has escalated following an assault on the presidential complex, resulting in 19 fatalities. France has handed over a second army base amid its withdrawal from the country, highlighting the international community's concern over the deteriorating security situation [SOURCE - IBTimes].

As tensions rise in Ukraine, Russia's military actions continue to escalate, with reports of significant civilian casualties, including a recent airstrike in Zaporizhzhia that killed 13 people [SOURCE - BBC]. The international community remains engaged, with the US announcing an additional $500 million in military aid for Ukraine [SOURCE - NDTV].

In Poland, the political landscape is tense as the government shuts down its consulate in Saint Petersburg following orders from Russia, reflecting the deteriorating diplomatic relations [SOURCE - The Hindu]. Additionally, a film about Vladimir Putin generated using artificial intelligence is set to premiere, raising questions about technology's intersection with politics [SOURCE - Notes from Poland].

In Serbia, the economy is facing challenges with potential energy shortages due to disruptions in gas pipelines, while the central bank maintains its interest rate amid caution over wage increases (SOURCE - Financial Post). Protests against civil rights violations have erupted among students, indicating growing unrest in the country (SOURCE - ABC News).

MENA Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇧🇭 Bahrain, 🇪🇬 Egypt, 🇮🇷 Iran, 🇮🇶 Iraq, 🇮🇱 Israel, 🇯🇴 Jordan, 🇱🇧 Lebanon, 🇱🇾 Libya, 🇴🇲 Oman, 🇸🇾 Syria, 🇹🇳 Tunisia, 🇾🇪 Yemen

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇰🇼 Kuwait, 🇶🇦 Qatar, 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia, 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates

MENA News Summary

In Lebanon, the recent election of General Michel Aoun as president marks a pivotal moment for the country, which has been embroiled in turmoil for years. Aoun's election has been welcomed by global leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, who view it as a crucial step toward stability in Lebanon and the broader region [SOURCE - Ya Libnan].

The situation in Syria remains precarious, with ongoing tensions between Iran and Turkey over military actions against Kurdish fighters in Syria, further complicating the path to peace [SOURCE - Times of India].

Amidst these developments, the remnants of ISIS continue to pose a threat, as evidenced by a thwarted attack on a Shia shrine by Syrian intelligence [SOURCE - Deccan Chronicle]. The international community is also considering easing sanctions on Syria to support its transition post-Assad, reflecting a nuanced approach to the ongoing crisis [SOURCE - Jerusalem Post].

In Yemen, the United States has intensified its military efforts against Houthi insurgents, conducting airstrikes on their positions as tensions with Iran escalate [SOURCE - Jerusalem Post]. The Houthis have also launched attacks against Israel, further complicating the regional security landscape [SOURCE - Jerusalem Post]. The ongoing civil war in Yemen has resulted in significant civilian casualties, underscoring the dire humanitarian situation [SOURCE - ABC News].

Meanwhile, Qatar has emerged as a key player in mediating the conflict between Israel and Hamas, with high-level talks aimed at establishing a ceasefire [SOURCE - India Today]. This diplomatic engagement reflects Qatar's strategic positioning in the region, as it seeks to balance its relationships with both Western powers and regional actors.

In Iraq, tensions are rising between the government and the United States, with Iranian influence becoming increasingly pronounced. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has urged Iraqi leaders to confront the U.S. presence in the country, highlighting the ongoing geopolitical struggle in the region [SOURCE - Jerusalem Post]. The Iraqi security forces have made strides against ISIS, but the threat of terrorism remains a significant concern [SOURCE - Jerusalem Post].

Carpe tomorrow!