Good morning.

🇮🇳 26 Tourists Killed in Kashmir Attack

Gunmen killed 26 tourists in Pahalgam, Kashmir in the deadliest attack in 25 years. The Resistance Front who claimed the attack are believed to be linked to Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba. The attack, targeting mostly Indian civilians at the "valley of shepherds" tourist destination, threatens to escalate India-Pakistan tensions, with some experts describing it as "an act of war." More - Al Jazeera

🚢 Trump Signals Tariff Pullback on China

President Trump indicated he plans to reduce China tariffs substantially if a trade deal is reached, softening his previous hardline stance. Treasury Secretary Bessent acknowledged that the current standoff with China is unsustainable, though a comprehensive deal could take years. Chinese markets responded positively as Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun stated "the door for talks is wide open." More - Bloomberg

🇺🇦 Ukraine Peace Talks Stuck

London's high-level Ukraine peace talks were downgraded after US Secretary of State Rubio and envoy Witkoff canceled their participation. The withdrawal followed Ukrainian President Zelensky's rejection of potential US recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea in exchange for ending hostilities. While lower-level discussions continue with retired Lt. Gen. Kellogg representing the US, the Ukrainian delegation arrived ready to pursue "a full and unconditional ceasefire." More - Washington Post 

(Further complicating matters, there are also reports that the US is pulling back from efforts to investigate Russian war crimes in Ukraine. More - Washington Post)

We’re putting the bots to the test!

We’re taking part in the Metaculus AI Benchmarking series, tournaments that test the capabilities of AI agents in real-world conditions and compares their effectiveness to human forecasters and other AI agents.

It’s a great, real-world test of the agents’ effectiveness and will significantly enhance the scenario planning abilities of the Decis specialist agents. Read the whole announcement here

Europe Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇱 Albania, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇧🇬 Bulgaria, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom

Regional News Summary

Switzerland has reaffirmed its commitment to global cooperation by pledging CHF250 million for humanitarian aid, a move that underscores its traditional neutrality. However, this stance may soon be tested as pressure mounts for the country to increase its defense spending amid rising geopolitical tensions in Europe [SOURCE - SWISSINFO].

In the realm of international diplomacy, France has been actively engaging with the UK, Germany, and the US to address pressing issues, including a migrant returns deal aimed at curbing immigration to the UK [SOURCE - BBC]. Concurrently, France is leveraging a report from the International Atomic Energy Agency to challenge Iran's nuclear ambitions, showcasing its strategic role in European security [SOURCE - TASS].

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine remains a focal point of European diplomacy. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has emphasized the urgent need for air defenses to counter Russian aggression, while NATO's Secretary-General has acknowledged the difficulties in peace negotiations [SOURCE - Space War]. Meanwhile, Germany's decision to supply Taurus missiles to Ukraine has drawn criticism from Russia, further complicating the situation [SOURCE - Space War].

As the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine deepens, the US and Ukraine have signed a memorandum to facilitate a minerals deal, potentially linking military aid to Ukraine's supply of critical minerals [SOURCE - TASS]. This development highlights the intricate connections between economic resources and military support in the ongoing conflict.

In the economic sphere, Spain faces significant challenges, with predictions that it could lose its Mediterranean climate by 2050 due to desertification [SOURCE - The Olive Press]. Additionally, the International Monetary Fund has forecasted a downward trend in the global economy, prompting the European Central Bank to cut interest rates for the sixth consecutive time [SOURCE - The Olive Press].

In Poland, a task force has been established to combat the grey economy, aiming to enhance transparency and reduce tax evasion [SOURCE - Notes from Poland]. This initiative reflects a broader commitment to economic reform and fair competition within the country.

Meanwhile, Serbia's aspirations for EU accession are being challenged by internal political dynamics, as the government faces pressure to form a new administration amidst ongoing protests [SOURCE - France 24]. The Serbian leadership's planned visit to Moscow for Russia's Victory Day celebrations has drawn criticism from the EU, highlighting the delicate balance Serbia must maintain in its foreign relations [SOURCE - TASS].

MENA Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇧🇭 Bahrain, 🇪🇬 Egypt, 🇮🇷 Iran, 🇮🇶 Iraq, 🇮🇱 Israel, 🇯🇴 Jordan, 🇱🇧 Lebanon, 🇱🇾 Libya, 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia, 🇸🇾 Syria, 🇹🇳 Tunisia, 🇾🇪 Yemen

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇰🇼 Kuwait, 🇴🇲 Oman, 🇶🇦 Qatar, 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates

Regional News Summary

The United States has announced a reduction of its military presence in Syria, withdrawing approximately 600 troops while maintaining a contingent of fewer than 1,000 to combat ISIS militants. This decision has raised alarms in Israel, which fears a potential power vacuum that could destabilize the region. In response, Israel has committed to maintaining its military presence in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria indefinitely, as tensions continue to escalate in these areas [SOURCE - Winnipeg Free Press].

Amid these military maneuvers, Turkey has reaffirmed its support for Syria, with President Erdogan hosting a Syrian delegation to enhance trade relations. The U.S. has encouraged Turkey and Israel to engage in military deconfliction talks regarding Syria, while a Congressional delegation is set to visit Syria for the first time since the ouster of President Assad [SOURCE - Syrian Arab News Agency].

In the economic sphere, Syria is taking steps towards reconstruction, with discussions between the Health Ministers of Syria and Turkey aimed at bolstering the healthcare sector. Additionally, Qatar's chief negotiator has indicated plans to discuss easing sanctions on Syria with Washington, signaling a potential shift in international economic relations [SOURCE - Syrian Arab News Agency].

The humanitarian situation in Yemen has deteriorated sharply, exacerbated by recent U.S. airstrikes on Houthi-controlled areas, which resulted in significant civilian casualties. Reports indicate at least 80 fatalities from these strikes, prompting a retaliatory ballistic missile attack by Houthi rebels on Tel Aviv, which was intercepted by Israeli defenses [SOURCE - The Hindu BusinessLine]. The humanitarian crisis has further intensified as the World Food Programme halted food shipments to Houthi-held regions following the seizure of a warehouse by rebels [SOURCE - Japan Today].

In Gaza, the situation remains dire as Israel tightens its military grip, claiming control over one-third of the territory. The humanitarian crisis has deepened, with Israel's blockade preventing essential aid from entering. The international community has condemned these actions, with Iran criticizing Israel for the high number of child casualties [SOURCE - NDTV]. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has vowed to continue military operations until Hamas is defeated, further complicating the humanitarian landscape [SOURCE - India Today].

In Tunisia, the government faces accusations of using arbitrary detention to suppress dissent, with Human Rights Watch reporting on the targeting of critics and opposition figures. This crackdown has raised concerns about the erosion of democratic freedoms in the country, prompting calls for international intervention to uphold human rights [SOURCE - Human Rights Watch].

As regional dynamics continue to shift, the United Arab Emirates is enhancing its diplomatic relations, recently hosting a summit with Central Asian states to discuss cooperation and development. Meanwhile, Egypt is playing a pivotal role in addressing the Gaza conflict, with plans for a medical contingent to assist in relief efforts [SOURCE - Channel News Asia].

Carpe tomorrow!