Good morning.

🇧🇪 Belgian police are looking for two to three gunmen who are on the run in Brussels after a shooting outside a metro station this morning. There were no casualties in the incident at around 06:15 local this morning, but stations were closed, and morning rush hour was disrupted. The men were armed with Klashnokov-style weapons and remain on the loose. [More - BBC]

🇸🇪 10 people were killed and five others injured in a shooting at an adult education center in Orebro, West of Stockholm. The gunman is believed to be among those killed. Police are discounting terrorism as the cause, but the motive remains unclear. This is Sweden’s worst mass shooting. [More - AlJazeera]

🇵🇸 In a joint news conference with Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Donald Trump proposed that the US take a “long-term ownership position” in Gaza to rebuild it and suggested Gaza’s Palestinians move to other countries while this took place. Egypt and Jordan have been under pressure to accept Palestinian refugees throughout the Gaza conflict. Both are reluctant for political and security reasons, but primarily as neither wants to be seen as facilitating the ethnic cleansing of the strip. Jordan's King Abdullah is scheduled to meet with Trump on February 11. [More - Washington Post]

Key Metrics

WTI is $73.51 (Down)

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Wheat is $185.794 (Up)

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EuroDollar is $1.04 (Down)

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YuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)

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Graphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days

Metrics via AlphaVantage updated Feb 04 2025 21:17 UTC

Europe Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇦🇱 Albania, 🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom

Regional News Summary

Switzerland's ambitious plan to overhaul its economy for greater ecological sustainability faces significant opposition, with polls indicating that a majority of voters are against the proposed measures aimed at cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 65% by 2035. This resistance comes at a time when the Swiss economy is experiencing record growth in exports, particularly in the pharmaceutical sector, raising concerns that failure to implement ecological reforms could hinder future economic progress [SOURCE - Swissinfo].

Meanwhile, France's economy is grappling with a contraction in GDP during the fourth quarter, raising alarms about its economic prospects. This downturn is not isolated, as it is linked to broader stagnation in the Eurozone, particularly due to Germany's economic struggles. In response, the French government is pushing for trade agreements with countries like India and the UK to stimulate growth [SOURCE - SEEKING ALPHA].

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine continues to escalate, with drone strikes and missile attacks reported on both sides. Ukrainian President Zelensky has called for a cease-fire, emphasizing the need for a diplomatic resolution, while the U.S. engages in serious discussions with Russia regarding the conflict. This situation has led to a sharp rise in demand for compliance advice as businesses navigate the complex regulatory landscape created by the war [SOURCE - FT].

In the Baltic region, Estonia is taking proactive measures to safeguard its underwater cables, which are vital for connectivity. The Estonian government is advocating for a shipping tax to fund protection efforts, reflecting the increasing importance of cybersecurity and infrastructure resilience in the face of rising geopolitical tensions [SOURCE - GCaptain].

Poland is also enhancing its defense capabilities, purchasing over 200 anti-radar missiles from the United States amid ongoing regional tensions. This move underscores the broader trend of NATO member states increasing their military readiness in response to perceived threats from Russia [SOURCE - SPACEWAR].

In Italy, the government is facing scrutiny over its handling of a toxic waste crisis in Naples, with the European Court of Human Rights ruling that the state violated residents' rights to life due to inaction. This highlights the urgent need for stronger environmental protections and accountability in governance [SOURCE - Winnipeg Free Press].

MENA Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇧🇭 Bahrain, 🇪🇬 Egypt, 🇮🇷 Iran, 🇮🇶 Iraq, 🇮🇱 Israel, 🇱🇧 Lebanon, 🇱🇾 Libya, 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia, 🇸🇾 Syria, 🇹🇳 Tunisia, 🇾🇪 Yemen

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇯🇴 Jordan, 🇰🇼 Kuwait, 🇴🇲 Oman, 🇶🇦 Qatar, 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates

Regional News Summary

The situation in Syria has taken a notable turn with the appointment of Dr. Najmuddin Shakir al-Sharaa as the interim president, following the ousting of President Bashar al-Assad. This transition signals a potential shift in the political landscape, as al-Sharaa has laid out his vision for Syria's future in his inaugural speech [SOURCE - Ya Libnan]. Concurrently, a high-ranking Russian delegation visited Syria, reaffirming Moscow's interest in maintaining relations with Syria [SOURCE - Russia Today]. This duality of support and transition highlights the complex interplay of power dynamics in the region.

As the Syrian government seeks to stabilize its economy, the finance minister has urged the international community to lift sanctions that have hindered economic growth and access to essential supplies [SOURCE - Syrian Arab News Agency]. This plea comes amidst a backdrop of shifting diplomatic relations, as Syria's interim president made his first official trip to Saudi Arabia, indicating a potential thaw in relations with the Gulf state [SOURCE - The Hindu].

The Israel-Hamas ceasefire remains in place but fragile while both sides engage in a series of hostage exchanges. [SOURCE - ABC]. However, the situation remains precarious, with ongoing military operations in the West Bank resulting in significant casualties among Palestinian militants [SOURCE - Red State].

The broader regional context is further complicated by Iran's military advancements and its ongoing tensions with the United States. Iran has unveiled new missile capabilities, raising concerns about its intentions in the region [SOURCE - NDTV]. This comes as the U.S. continues to navigate its relationship with Iran, signaling a willingness to engage in nuclear talks, contingent on Tehran's cooperation [SOURCE - Spacewar].

In the Gulf, Saudi Arabia has lifted its ban on foreign investment in listed firms with property in Mecca and Medina, a move that could significantly open up its economy [SOURCE - Livemint]. This economic liberalization aligns with the kingdom's Vision 2030 initiative, aimed at diversifying its economy away from oil dependency.

Carpe tomorrow!