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Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Israel-Iran Conflict Latest, Trump Rejects DIA Iran Strike Assessment, Gaza Aid 'Death Trap',

Andrew Sheves
June 25, 2025 • Time to Enlightenment...18 minutes

Good morning.

Admin note: I am traveling for the next few days so the SITREPS will be slimmed down for the remainder of the week.

As a reminder, you can access country reports anytime through your workspace account or via the Chrome extension.

🇮🇱 🇮🇷 Israel-Iran Conflict Latest

This will be the last daily summary of the conflict unless the ceasefire breaks down

Ceasefire and Violations

Ceasefire Brokered by Trump: President Donald Trump announced a "complete and total" ceasefire between Israel and Iran on June 24. Despite this, the ceasefire has proved fragile, with both sides accused of violations1 2 3.
Violations and Retaliations:
- Iran: Shortly after the ceasefire announcement, Iran launched a fresh barrage of missiles into southern Israel, striking a residential building and killing four people. Iran’s foreign minister stated there was "no agreement" with Israel on any ceasefire but suggested Iran would halt its response if Israel stopped its "illegal aggression"2 4.
- Israel: Israel responded to Iranian missile launches on June 24 with targeted airstrikes, including against a radar site and missile launchers, reportedly foiling a larger Iranian attack. The Israeli Air Force conducted five waves of airstrikes on Iran, including on regime targets in Tehran, killing hundreds of officials and paramilitary forces and reportedly eliminating a senior nuclear scientist3 1.
- U.S. Involvement: The U.S. previously attacked Iranian nuclear sites with B-2 bombers on June 22, prompting Iran to retaliate by targeting the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which led to temporary airspace closures in several Gulf countries2 4.
Trump’s Reactions: President Trump publicly called on Israel to refrain from further strikes and to "bring your pilots home, now!" He criticized both Israel and Iran for ceasefire violations but acknowledged the complexity of the situation, stating both sides had "violated" the agreement1 3 4.

Damage Assessments and Casualties

Iran:
- Casualties: Iranian health authorities report 610 killed and 4,746 injured, while independent sources like HRANA put the death toll higher, at 974 killed and 3,458 injured as of June 24. Civilians, including women and children, are among the casualties5 4.
- Infrastructure: Israel’s military claims to have destroyed dozens of key government targets in Tehran, including IRGC headquarters and underground missile storage, and to have eliminated much of the IRGC’s aerospace leadership1 3 5.
- Nuclear Program: Early assessments indicate significant damage to Iran’s nuclear sites, but not total destruction. Trump’s claim that Iran’s nuclear facilities were "completely and totally obliterated" is disputed by classified reports4. (See main story below)
Israel:
- Casualties: At least 29 people have been killed and over 3,200 injured in Israel as of June 24, with the latest attack killing four in a residential building5 4.
- Military Operations: Israel claims to have achieved "full air superiority" over Tehran’s skies and to have eliminated major threats to its security1 3.

Effects on Markets and Commodities

Oil and Regional Markets:
- Strait of Hormuz: Threat levels in the Strait of Hormuz remain high, but the movement of oil tankers has largely remained steady, with no major disruptions reported as of June 242.
- Market Impact: Despite heightened tensions, oil markets have not shown significant volatility. The conflict’s escalation has not yet led to major supply disruptions or dramatic price spikes2.
Regional Security:
- Airspace Closures: Airspace in several Gulf countries was temporarily closed following the Iranian attack on the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, but normal operations have since resumed2.

Summary Table

Aspect	Israel	Iran
Casualties	29 killed, 3,200+ injured	610–974 killed, 3,458–4,746 injured
Infrastructure Damage	Limited civilian, some military targets hit	Major regime/military targets destroyed
Nuclear Program	—	Significant damage, not total destruction
Market Impact	Minimal direct impact	Oil tanker movement steady, no major crisis

Source URLs

Fox News (Live Updates): https://www.foxnews.com/live-news/israel-iran-conflict-june-24-20251
Indian Express (Live Updates): https://indianexpress.com/article/world/iran-israel-war-live-updates-trump-ceasefire-100845692
JINSA (U.S.-Israel-Iran Conflict Update): https://jinsa.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/US-Israel-Iran-Conflict-6-24-25.pdf3
Los Angeles Times: https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2025-06-24/enraged-trump-blast-israel-and-iran-over-ceasefire-violations4
Wikipedia (Casualties): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war5

Full sources are listed at the end of the SITREP

☢️ Trump Rejects DIA Iran Strike Assessment

President Trump rejected Pentagon intelligence finding his Iran airstrikes had only limited nuclear program impact, insisting on Truth Social that "nuclear sites in Iran are completely destroyed." The Defense Intelligence Agency assessment concluded the June 22 bombing likely didn't cripple core underground components including centrifuges, despite using bunker-buster bombs at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan facilities. Trump brokered a ceasefire ending the 12-day Israel-Iran conflict, with focus now shifting back to nuclear diplomacy as the IAEA seeks to verify Iran's enriched uranium stockpiles. More - Bloomberg

🇵🇸 Gaza Aid 'Death Trap'

At least 46 Palestinians were killed by Israeli fire while waiting for aid in two separate incidents, bringing the total killed at distribution sites to over 410 since the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation began operations in late May. UN officials condemned the US-Israel backed system as "an abomination" and "a death trap," with witnesses describing soldiers firing directly at crowds gathering for food. The weaponization of humanitarian aid constitutes a war crime, according to UN human rights officials, as Gaza remains on the brink of famine. More - BBC

Europe Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇱 Albania, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇧🇬 Bulgaria, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇨🇭 Switzerland

Regional News Summary

Switzerland's central bank has made a bold move by cutting its key interest rate to zero, a strategy aimed at countering the strengthening franc and the economic slowdown anticipated for 2026. This decision reflects the broader uncertainty in the global economy, as evidenced by the Swiss stock market's ongoing decline. Additionally, Switzerland has been identified as one of the most expensive countries for household electricity, which could strain household budgets further [SOURCE - Swissinfo].

In a related economic context, Indian deposits in Swiss banks have tripled, raising questions about the flow of funds from India to Switzerland. This surge has piqued the interest of the Indian government, which is keen to monitor these financial movements [SOURCE - India Today].

Meanwhile, the geopolitical landscape remains fraught with tension. Switzerland is closely monitoring the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, with Israel claiming to have delayed Iran's nuclear program by two years following a series of strikes. The international community, including the US, is also weighing in, with President Trump setting a two-week deadline for Iran to respond to diplomatic overtures [SOURCE - Malay Mail].

In defense matters, France has initiated its eighth military drill, Shakti, with India, reinforcing bilateral defense ties amidst rising tensions in the Middle East. Concurrently, European foreign ministers are set to engage in discussions with Iran, as the situation continues to evolve [SOURCE - India Today].

The political climate in Europe is also shifting. France has condemned Israel's recent strike on Tehran's Evin prison, labeling it unacceptable. Additionally, a survey indicates that a majority of French citizens oppose President Macron's push to recognize a Palestinian state, highlighting the complexities of public sentiment on foreign policy [SOURCE - SABC News].

Germany is planning to increase its defense spending significantly, aiming for 3.5% of GDP by 2029, amidst concerns over national security. This move comes as NATO debates a historic defense spending pledge, reflecting the alliance's response to the evolving security landscape in Europe [SOURCE - Winnipeg Free Press].

In the realm of social issues, France has faced alarming incidents, including syringe attacks at music festivals, which have led to arrests and raised concerns about public safety [SOURCE - Global News].

MENA Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇧🇭 Bahrain, 🇪🇬 Egypt, 🇮🇷 Iran, 🇮🇶 Iraq, 🇮🇱 Israel, 🇯🇴 Jordan, 🇰🇼 Kuwait, 🇱🇧 Lebanon, 🇱🇾 Libya, 🇴🇲 Oman, 🇶🇦 Qatar, 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia, 🇸🇾 Syria, 🇹🇳 Tunisia, 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates, 🇾🇪 Yemen

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

No countries were unchanged over this period

Regional News Summary

(Note this weekly summary was written before the parameters of the ceasefire became clear)

The conflict has seen Israel launching airstrikes against Iranian targets, with Iran retaliating by firing missiles into Israeli territory. This exchange marks a significant escalation, prompting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to declare that Israel "will exact the full price" from Iran for its attacks [SOURCE - Fox News]. The humanitarian impact is severe, with countries scrambling to evacuate their citizens from the conflict zones, including the US, UK, and Japan initiating repatriation flights from Israel [SOURCE - Economic Times].

In response to the escalating violence, Turkey has called for Muslim unity and condemned Israel's actions, warning that the region is being dragged towards disaster [SOURCE - The Sun]. Meanwhile, Egypt has positioned itself as a mediator, with President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi asserting that the crisis cannot be resolved through military means [SOURCE - TASS]. Egypt is also facilitating talks between Hamas and Israel regarding a potential hostage deal, showcasing its diplomatic influence in the region [SOURCE - The Jerusalem Post].

The humanitarian situation is dire, with the UNHCR reporting over 85,000 Syrian refugees returning home since December 2024, despite ongoing violence [SOURCE - Syrian Arab News Agency]. However, recent attacks, including a suicide bombing at a church in Damascus, have raised alarms about the safety of religious minorities in the region [SOURCE - The Washington Post].

As the conflict unfolds, the Houthis in Yemen have threatened to target US vessels in the Red Sea if the US continues to support Israel's military actions [SOURCE - Livemint]. This threat underscores the broader regional instability, with US military officials warning that the Houthis are likely to remain a persistent challenge due to their capabilities to disrupt shipping lanes and target Saudi Arabia [SOURCE - Algemeiner].

In the economic sphere, the UAE has emerged as a safe haven for investors amid the turmoil, with experts predicting an influx of wealth due to its stability [SOURCE - Economic Times]. However, air travel disruptions have been widespread, with the UAE closing its airspace and several airlines canceling flights due to the heightened tensions [SOURCE - The Hindu BusinessLine].

As the situation continues to evolve, the international community remains watchful, with diplomatic efforts underway to de-escalate tensions. The potential for a ceasefire has been suggested, although the situation remains precarious, with both sides engaging in military posturing and retaliatory strikes [SOURCE - CBS News]. The coming days will be critical in determining whether a path to peace can be forged amidst the chaos.

Carpe tomorrow!

Israel-Iran Reporting Sources