Good morning.

🇺🇦 Zelensky Rejects Donbas Concession

Ukrainian President Zelensky ruled out ceding the Donbas region to Russia in any peace deal, warning it would create "a bridgehead for Russians to prepare an offensive" ahead of Friday's Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska. Zelensky said Ukraine would reject proposals to surrender parts of Donbas despite Russian forces making a sudden 10km advance near Dobropillia, which he claimed was timed to create an "information space" showing "Russia is moving forward while Ukraine is losing." The Ukrainian leader expressed frustration at being excluded from the Alaska summit, calling the location choice a "personal victory" for Putin who is "coming out of isolation" by meeting on US territory, while warning any agreements without Kyiv's involvement would be "dead decisions." More - BBC

🇮🇷 Iran Arrested 21,000 During Israel War

Iran arrested 21,000 "suspects" during its 12-day conflict with Israel and the US in June, following massive strikes that killed top military officials, scientists and hundreds of civilians, according to a police spokesperson. Iranian security forces launched widespread arrests with intensified street checkpoints and public reporting campaigns, with citizens encouraged to report suspicious individuals amid a 41% increase in public calls to authorities. The crackdown also targeted Afghan refugees and migrants, with police rounding up 2,774 "illegal migrants" and discovering "30 special security cases" while accusing some Afghan nationals of spying for Israel, as Iran has executed seven men convicted of Israeli espionage since the conflict ended. More - Al Jazeera

Europe Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇱 Albania, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇧🇬 Bulgaria, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇸🇪 Sweden

Regional News Summary

Switzerland is currently navigating a challenging economic landscape as it reassesses its global strategy in light of escalating tariffs imposed by the United States. Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutterhas engaged in discussions with US Secretary of State Rubio to mitigate the impact of these tariffs, which have already prompted local firms to rethink their international operations. Despite a steady jobless rate, the Swiss economy is feeling the strain from ongoing trade tensions, raising concerns about future growth prospects [SOURCE - International Business Times].

The gold industry has been particularly affected, with US tariffs on Swiss gold bar imports leading to a surge in gold futures prices, although a subsequent clarification from the White House caused these prices to retract [SOURCE - UPI]. This volatility underscores the broader implications of US trade policies on European markets.

In France, a massive wildfire has wreaked havoc in the south, marking the worst such event in 80 years, with over 16,000 hectares burned and numerous homes lost. Firefighters are battling the blaze, but the situation remains dire [SOURCE - France 24].

Amidst these environmental challenges, the UK has announced the detention of the first migrants under a new return deal with France, reflecting ongoing tensions surrounding immigration and border policy in Europe [SOURCE - International Business Times]. This development comes as both the UK and France face economic hurdles, exacerbated by a downturn in German industry, which is impacting the broader European economic landscape [SOURCE - The Rio Times]

In the realm of international relations, France has reiterated its commitment to Ukraine's territorial integrity, rejecting Russia's ceasefire proposal that includes land concessions. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has firmly stated that he will not cede any territory, a position supported by European leaders [SOURCE - France 24]. This backdrop sets the stage for an upcoming summit between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, where the Ukrainian conflict will be a focal point [SOURCE - The Journal].

In Poland, political developments are unfolding as the newly sworn-in President Karol Nawrocki presents key legislation aimed at tax cuts for parents and farmer protections. This comes amid a backdrop of controversy, including the dismissal of a state agency head over EU fund spending issues [SOURCE - Notes from Poland].

Meanwhile, the economic landscape in Spain is showing signs of a property boom, with the highest sales figures since 2007, although this surge has led to a significant rise in rental costs, complicating housing affordability [SOURCE - The Olive Press]. 

MENA Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇧🇭 Bahrain, 🇪🇬 Egypt, 🇮🇷 Iran, 🇮🇶 Iraq, 🇮🇱 Israel, 🇯🇴 Jordan, 🇱🇧 Lebanon, 🇱🇾 Libya, 🇸🇾 Syria, 🇹🇳 Tunisia, 🇾🇪 Yemen

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇰🇼 Kuwait, 🇴🇲 Oman, 🇶🇦 Qatar, 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia, 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates

Regional News Summary

In Syria, a new justice body has been established to hold officials accountable for human rights violations, reflecting growing international pressure for accountability amid a backdrop of chilling incidents, including the execution of a medical worker in a hospital, which has sparked calls for an independent investigation [SOURCE - ABC News]. Concurrently, Turkish firms are set to invest $4 billion in Damascus airport, signaling a potential thaw in economic relations between Syria and Turkey [SOURCE - Hurriyet Daily News]. This investment comes as Germany reaffirms its commitment to Syria's territorial integrity, highlighting the delicate balance of international relations in the region [SOURCE - Syrian Arab News Agency].

The situation in Gaza has escalated dramatically, with Israel's military actions resulting in the deaths of at least 138 Palestinians in a single day, drawing widespread international condemnation [SOURCE - TASS]. The UK, Australia, and Germany have warned Israel against its plans for military control over Gaza, with Germany even suspending some arms exports to Israel [SOURCE - UPI]. Amidst this turmoil, Qatar has condemned Israel's actions and is reportedly working on a ceasefire-hostage plan, reflecting its role as a mediator in the ongoing conflict [SOURCE - Middle East Eye].

In Egypt, a significant $35 billion natural gas deal with Israel's Leviathan has raised concerns about the country's energy independence, as critics argue it may deepen Egypt's reliance on Israeli gas imports [SOURCE - TimesLIVE]. 

Meanwhile, Sudan's new Prime Minister has made his first foreign visit to Egypt, signaling a potential shift in bilateral relations amidst ongoing civil strife in Sudan [SOURCE - Al-Monitor]. This visit underscores the importance of regional cooperation in addressing the challenges posed by civil conflicts.

In Lebanon, the government has decided to seek a state monopoly on arms, a move that has been met with resistance from Hezbollah, which has labeled it a "grave mistake." This decision comes amid escalating tensions with Israel, including recent airstrikes that resulted in casualties [SOURCE - Middle East Eye]. The U.S. has proposed a resolution to the Lebanon-Israel conflict, emphasizing disarmament and the withdrawal of Israeli forces by the end of 2025 [SOURCE - Ynetnews].

Carpe tomorrow!