Good morning.

🇮🇳 A crowd surge at a Hindi festival in Northern India raised fears of multiple casualties but early reports are unclear. Up to 100 million people are anticipated at the Kumbh Mela festival in Sangam where devotees gather every 12 years to bathe in the confluence of two sacred rivers [More - BBC]

🇹🇼 In addition to tariffs against countries, President Trump announced that sectors would also be subject to import taxes. Among other sectors, Trump specifically called out Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, adding further complexity and confusion to US supply chains. [More - Washington Post]

🇺🇸 The Trump team’s ‘shock and awe’ approach to the transition is causing unintended consequences and confusion in defense and national security. Confusion over funding rattled the defense sector [more - Politico] and firing at advisory boards Cyber Safety Review Board (CSRB) weakens America’s ability to respond to cyber attacks [more - Axios].

New Technical Article

You’ll have heard all about the DeepSeek models causing chaos in the AI world, but are they better than the others on offer? I ran some bench tests earlier today to find out and was pleasantly surprised.

Europe Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇱 Albania, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇸🇮 Slovenia

Europe News Summary

Switzerland's economy remains a focal point of interest, bolstered by President Cyril Ramaphosa's endorsement of the country as an attractive investment destination, thanks to its stable business environment. This affirmation coincides with the signing of a trade deal between Switzerland and Thailand, aimed at strengthening economic ties between the two nations [SOURCE - SwissInfo].

However, environmental concerns are surfacing as a report reveals that 10 out of 13 bottled waters tested in Switzerland failed pollution tests, raising alarms about the country's water quality [SOURCE - Léman Bleu News]. Additionally, Swiss bankruptcies are projected to rise sharply this year, indicating potential economic strain [SOURCE - Léman Bleu News].

In France, the situation is increasingly dire as antisemitism escalates, with over 1,500 incidents reported in 2024, raising serious concerns about the safety of the Jewish community [SOURCE - ALGEMEINER]. The country is also grappling with a slowing economy, prompting requests to the European Union for a delay in rights and environment-related business regulations to alleviate burdens on businesses [SOURCE - IBTIMES].

Amidst these challenges, France's military strategy in Africa is under scrutiny, with experts suggesting a shift towards neocolonialism, potentially destabilizing the region [SOURCE - COUNTERPUNCH]. Meanwhile, significant ceasefire developments in Lebanon have extended a truce with Israel until February 18, although regional tensions persist [SOURCE - PROTO THEMA].

In Ukraine, the ongoing conflict with Russia has entered its 1,064th day, with no resolution in sight. The situation is exacerbated by India's decision to block payments for Russian oil, further straining Russia's economy [SOURCE - Eaworldview]. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency has warned that Ukraine is perilously close to a nuclear disaster, highlighting the escalating risks associated with the conflict [SOURCE - NDTV].

In Poland, the Prime Minister has urged the European Union to increase defense spending in light of rising global tensions, reflecting the country's growing security concerns [SOURCE - Investing.com]. Meanwhile, Poland's stock market has shown resilience, with the WIG30 index rising by 0.66% at the close of trade, indicating investor confidence [SOURCE - Investing.com].

MENA Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇧🇭 Bahrain, 🇪🇬 Egypt, 🇮🇷 Iran, 🇮🇶 Iraq, 🇮🇱 Israel, 🇱🇧 Lebanon, 🇱🇾 Libya, 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia, 🇸🇾 Syria, 🇹🇳 Tunisia, 🇾🇪 Yemen

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇯🇴 Jordan, 🇰🇼 Kuwait, 🇴🇲 Oman, 🇶🇦 Qatar, 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates

MENA News Summary

In Syria, the return of refugees is gaining momentum following the ousting of President Assad. Many Syrians are returning to their war-torn homes, a sign of hope for the country's recovery, although the scars of the civil war will take time to heal. The United Nations is advocating for a sustainable return of these refugees and is collaborating with the Arab League to support Syria's political process, emphasizing the need for international cooperation in reconstruction efforts [SOURCE - Hurriyet Daily News].

Trade relations are also improving, marked by the resumption of commercial flights between Turkey and Syria after a 13-year hiatus. This development is crucial for Syria's economic recovery, as is the recent reduction of tariffs on Turkish goods, which aims to ease trade tensions between the two nations [SOURCE - Middle East Eye]. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia has stepped up its humanitarian efforts by sending 54 relief trucks to Syria, highlighting the ongoing need for international support in the region [SOURCE - Understanding War].

Despite these positive developments, challenges remain. Kurdish media outlets in Turkey are facing increased repression, and tensions persist between Israel and Syria, particularly regarding Hezbollah's activities in the region [SOURCE - Ya Libnan]. The international community is preparing for a conference in Brussels aimed at supporting Syria, with the European Union considering the suspension of some sanctions against the country [SOURCE - Syrian Arab News Agency].

In Yemen, the Houthi rebels have released the crew of a British-owned vessel amid a ceasefire in Gaza, showcasing their strategic maneuvering in the region. However, the U.S. has re-designated the Houthis as a foreign terrorist organization, a move that has drawn criticism from various quarters, including Hezbollah in Lebanon [SOURCE - New York Post].

Meanwhile, Jordan is grappling with the fallout from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, as residents in Jenin and the West Bank are forced to flee due to ongoing Israeli raids. The Jordanian government has firmly opposed any plans that could lead to the displacement of Palestinians from Gaza, emphasizing its commitment to humanitarian principles [SOURCE - SABC News].

In Iraq, a significant discovery of oil reserves has bolstered the nation's energy stockpile, providing a potential economic boost. However, the country is also facing backlash for recently approving a law permitting child marriages, which has sparked widespread condemnation from human rights advocates [SOURCE - India.com].

As tensions rise in Lebanon with the impending Israeli withdrawal, the humanitarian crisis continues to deepen, exacerbated by recent violence that has resulted in civilian casualties [SOURCE - BBC]. The situation remains precarious, with fears of a broader regional conflict looming.

In the Gulf, Saudi Arabia is pursuing ambitious economic investments, including a $600 billion commitment to the United States over the next four years, aimed at fostering bilateral trade and economic ties [SOURCE - Financial Times]. The UAE is also making strides in economic diplomacy, recently signing a $10 billion gas deal to strengthen its energy sector [SOURCE - Rigzone].

Carpe tomorrow!