Good morning.

🇮🇱 🇮🇷 Israel-Iran Conflict Update: June 17–18, 2025

Overview of the Last 24 Hours

· Escalation of Hostilities: The conflict between Israel and Iran has intensified, with both sides launching new waves of missile and air strikes. Early Wednesday, Iran fired two barrages of ballistic missiles at Israel, while Israel continued its air campaign targeting Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure, especially around Tehran and Isfahan^[1][2][3][4].

· No Immediate Ceasefire: Despite international calls for de-escalation, both countries have signaled their intent to continue military operations. U.S. President Donald Trump has demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and is reportedly considering direct U.S. military involvement, though no such action has been taken yet^[3][4].

Damage Assessments

In Iran

· Casualties: Israeli airstrikes have killed at least 585 people and wounded 1,326 others across Iran, according to the Human Rights Activists group. Of the dead, 239 have been identified as civilians and 126 as security personnel^[5][6].

· Infrastructure Damage: Israeli strikes have targeted key nuclear and military sites, including the Natanz enrichment facility (overground section destroyed), Isfahan’s uranium conversion facility (damaged), and missile production complexes. Civilian infrastructure and residential areas in Tehran and other cities have also been hit^[1][7].

· Nuclear Program Impact: The attacks have reportedly damaged Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, but the underground Fordow facility remains intact. The International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed direct hits on Natanz^[3][7].

In Israel

· Casualties: Iranian missile and drone attacks have killed at least 24 civilians and wounded hundreds in Israel. Recent barrages caused fires and property damage in central Israel, but no new fatalities were reported in the last 24 hours^[2][8].

· Material Damage: Multiple buildings in Tel Aviv and Ramat Gan have been destroyed or damaged. Fires broke out in parking lots and residential areas, and missile debris has caused additional property loss^[2][8].

Effects on Markets and Commodities

Oil Markets

· Price Surge: Oil prices have surged by over 4% in the last 24 hours, with Brent crude reaching around $75 per barrel, the highest since January. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude also saw significant gains^[1][9][10].

· Market Volatility: The conflict has injected substantial volatility into global energy markets. The risk premium for oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz has increased sharply, with daily rates for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) up 40% since June 13^[10].

· Shipping Disruptions: While the Strait of Hormuz remains open, there have been incidents such as a collision and fire involving oil tankers near the strait, and widespread electronic interference affecting ship navigation. Qatar’s national energy firm has advised tankers to avoid the area except for immediate loading^[10][11].

Broader Economic Impact

· Investor Caution: Markets are in a “wait-and-see” mode, with concerns about further escalation and potential supply disruptions. There is increased demand for oil from regions outside the Middle East as buyers seek to hedge against possible interruptions^[10].

· Gasoline Prices: The surge in crude prices is already translating into higher gasoline costs globally^[1][9].

Humanitarian and Civilian Impact

· Evacuations: Thousands have fled Tehran and other Iranian cities. Israel has begun repatriating citizens stranded abroad due to the conflict^[3][12].

· U.S. Embassy Closures: The U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem and consular sections in Tel Aviv are closed through June 20 due to security concerns^[13].

Key Source Links

·       CNN: Israel-Iran conflict live updates^[1]

·       Times of Israel: Iran fires missile barrages at Israel^[2]

·       Reuters: Israel, Iran exchange missile strikes^[3]

·       Washington Post: Israel, Iran exchange strikes^[4]

·       Reuters: Oil prices rise as conflict escalates^[9]

·       Reuters: Oil tanker market signals disruption^[10]

·       Washington Post: Israeli strikes kill hundreds in Iran^[5]

🇵🇸 Gaza Aid Site Massacre

Israeli forces killed at least 70 Palestinians and wounded hundreds more as they sought food aid in Khan Younis, marking the deadliest day at aid distribution sites since operations began May 26. Troops used tanks, machine guns and drones against desperate crowds gathering for flour, with survivors describing victims "shredded to pieces." Over 300 people have been killed and 2,000 wounded at US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation sites, prompting UN calls for accountability as the organization operates without major humanitarian groups' cooperation. More - Al Jazeera

🇮🇩 Indonesia Volcano Alert Raised

Indonesia issued its highest volcanic alert as Mount Lewotobi Laki-Laki erupted Tuesday, sending an ash cloud 11 kilometers into the sky above Flores island. Authorities imposed a 7-kilometer exclusion zone around the 1,584-meter volcano and evacuated at least one village, warning of potential deadly lahar floods if heavy rain occurs. The same volcano killed nine people during multiple eruptions in November, forcing thousands to flee and canceling flights. More - BBC

🇺🇦 Massive Russian Attack on Kyiv

Russia killed at least 17 people, including an American citizen, and injured 117 in massive overnight [Monday - Tuesday night] attacks on Ukrainian cities using 440 drones and 32 missiles, with a nine-story Kyiv apartment building collapsing. The strike occurred as Trump cut short his G-7 visit and avoided committing to new Russia sanctions, with the summit ending without a Ukraine statement due to US opposition. A Ukrainian official said the US had redirected 10,000 anti-drone munitions from Ukraine to the Middle East, undermining Kyiv's air defenses. More - Washington Post

Europe Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇱 Albania, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇧🇬 Bulgaria, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇫🇷 France, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇸🇪 Sweden

Regional News Summary

India is poised for a substantial investment boost, targeting $100 billion, as it moves closer to implementing the Swiss component of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) deal by October 2025. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal emphasized the importance of a robust regulatory framework to attract Swiss investments, a sentiment echoed by Swiss diplomats who stress the need to cut red tape in India to facilitate this influx [SOURCE - The Economic Times].

Meanwhile, the European Commission has formalized its agreement with Switzerland, which includes provisions for trade and investment, further solidifying economic ties [SOURCE - Swissinfo]. However, a Swiss court has rejected an appeal to release funds linked to the former Ukrainian regime, highlighting ongoing financial complexities in the region [SOURCE - Swissinfo].

In the realm of politics, a violent pro-Palestine demonstration in Zurich resulted in 11 arrests, reflecting the heightened tensions surrounding international conflicts [SOURCE - Swissinfo]. 

French President Emmanuel Macron has reaffirmed Israel's right to defend itself amid escalating tensions with Iran, while European leaders call for de-escalation and diplomacy in the region [SOURCE - Middle East Eye].

On the economic front, the European Union has disbursed an additional €1 billion in aid to Ukraine, as Germany's Defence Minister visited the country to discuss weapons support [SOURCE - The Sun]. This comes as Ukraine's President Zelensky reported halting Russian advances in the Sumy region, amidst a backdrop of significant troop losses for Russia [SOURCE - Economic Times].

In the UK, significant developments include a potential agreement with the EU and Spain regarding Gibraltar's post-Brexit status, which could ease tensions over the territory [SOURCE - Financial Times]. Additionally, the UK is focusing on enhancing its defense capabilities, with banks and defense firms gaining prominence in the economy [SOURCE - Forbes].

As tensions rise in Northern Ireland, anti-immigrant violence has erupted, leading to multiple nights of rioting and police injuries. This unrest has been fueled by allegations of a sexual assault, prompting emergency rallies against racism [SOURCE - NBC News].

MENA Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇧🇭 Bahrain, 🇪🇬 Egypt, 🇮🇷 Iran, 🇮🇶 Iraq, 🇮🇱 Israel, 🇯🇴 Jordan, 🇰🇼 Kuwait, 🇱🇧 Lebanon, 🇱🇾 Libya, 🇶🇦 Qatar, 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia, 🇸🇾 Syria, 🇹🇳 Tunisia, 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates, 🇾🇪 Yemen

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇴🇲 Oman

Regional News Summary

Tensions in the Middle East have escalated dramatically, particularly between Israel and Iran, as both nations engage in a series of retaliatory strikes. Israel has launched significant attacks on Iranian radar sites in Syria, resulting in the deaths of 78 individuals, according to a UN ambassador. In response, Iran has retaliated with over 100 missiles and 170 drones, prompting Israel to temporarily shut down Ben Gurion Airport. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) also reported the elimination of an Iranian general featured in propaganda videos, further intensifying the conflict.

The repercussions of this conflict extend beyond the immediate region. Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon have reopened their airspace after a temporary closure due to the escalating tensions, which had caused significant flight disruptions across several countries, including India. Pakistan has emerged as a crucial air route during this crisis, highlighting the broader regional implications of the conflict [SOURCE - The Jerusalem Post].

As the situation unfolds, Iraq has expressed concerns about the conflict spilling over into its territory, appealing to both the U.S. and Iran for restraint. Reports indicate that the U.S. had notified Turkey prior to Israel's attacks, underscoring the intricate web of international diplomacy at play [SOURCE - Malay Mail].

In Yemen, the conflict has also escalated, with Houthi forces launching ballistic missiles at Ben Gurion Airport in solidarity with Gaza. This marks a significant escalation in regional tensions, as Israel has retaliated with strikes targeting Houthi leaders in Yemen [SOURCE - ABNA24].

The economic ramifications of these conflicts are already being felt. Oil prices have surged amid the escalating tensions, with analysts warning that prices could spike further if the situation deteriorates. Egypt's stock market has also suffered losses as a direct consequence of the Israel-Iran conflict [SOURCE - NDTV Profit].

In Syria, the International Monetary Fund has emphasized that substantial international support will be necessary for the country's post-war recovery. Concurrently, the U.S.-Syria Business Council has been established in Washington, signaling potential economic engagement [SOURCE - The Hindu].

As the international community grapples with these developments, the potential for a wider conflict looms large. The United Nations has warned that Yemen is in a "free fall," urging immediate action to prevent further escalation. The situation remains fluid, with diplomatic efforts ongoing to de-escalate tensions and address the humanitarian crises emerging from the conflict [SOURCE - Jurist].

Carpe tomorrow!