Good morning.

🇨🇳 China Names New Trade Negotiator Amid Tariff War with US

China has appointed Li Chenggang, former assistant commerce minister and WTO ambassador, to replace veteran negotiator Wang Shouwen as its key trade envoy amid escalating tensions with the United States. The surprise move comes as Beijing faces the impact of Trump's increased tariffs, which recently jumped from 10% to 145%, with China retaliating by raising duties on US goods to 125%. Despite reporting better-than-expected first-quarter GDP growth of 5.4%, Chinese officials warned of economic challenges ahead as the tariffs begin to affect exports. A Chinese official criticized the US approach as "tariff barriers and trade bullying" that "violates economic laws" and "has a serious impact on the world economic order." More - BBC

🇵🇸 Israel Increased Pressure on Gaza

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has declared that troops will maintain indefinite control over captured Gaza areas, designating them as "security zones." Katz confirmed Israel is deliberately using food restrictions as leverage against Hamas, acknowledging that humanitarian aid is being blocked as a pressure tactic. The humanitarian crisis continues to worsen with at least 19 Palestinians killed in Israeli attacks since dawn today, including 10 in a Gaza City strike. According to Gaza's Health Ministry, the confirmed death toll has reached at least 51,000 Palestinians, while the Gaza Government Media Office estimates the actual figure exceeds 61,700 when accounting for thousands presumed dead under rubble after 18 months of war. More - Al Jazeera 

Europe Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇱 Albania, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇧🇬 Bulgaria, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom

Regional News Summary

Switzerland's President Karin Keller-Sutter recently engaged in discussions with U.S. President Donald Trump regarding tariffs, highlighting the need for stability in trade relationships for Swiss companies. This conversation followed Trump's promise to suspend tariffs, a move that has been met with mixed reactions as the Swiss watch industry faces challenges, including showroom closures and job cuts at Watches of Switzerland Group [SOURCE - Swissinfo].

In France, President Emmanuel Macron's announcement of potential recognition of a Palestinian state has stirred controversy, drawing criticism from Israel and raising questions about France's foreign policy direction. This move aligns with France's broader diplomatic efforts, including calls for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict [SOURCE - Jewish News]. Concurrently, France is reaffirming its support for the EU-Philippines Free Trade Agreement, indicating a commitment to strengthening international trade ties [SOURCE - Manila Times].

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine remains a focal point for European security. Russia has launched a new offensive, with Ukraine's military chief reporting increased hostilities. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has claimed that Chinese nationals are fighting alongside Russian troops, a statement that has been denied by Beijing [SOURCE - ABC News]. In response, European nations have pledged substantial military support for Ukraine, with Germany leading a coalition in a $24 billion aid package [SOURCE - Space War].

In Poland, a corruption scandal involving the illegal issuance of visas has led to the detention of officials, highlighting ongoing issues within the country's governance. This comes amid a heated political climate as presidential candidates engage in debates over the future direction of the nation [SOURCE - Notes From Poland].

As the EU grapples with the implications of U.S. tariffs, Spain is bracing for a significant economic impact, with four out of five exports to the U.S. facing new tariffs, potentially resulting in a €15 billion loss. In response, Spain is advocating for an EU pivot towards China to mitigate the effects of these tariffs [SOURCE - The Olive Press].

In the realm of human rights, Ireland has made strides in addressing elder abuse and has faced scrutiny over its housing policies for asylum seekers, with the European court ruling that the country cannot evade its responsibilities [SOURCE - The Journal].

Lastly, the arrest of Indian fugitive Mehul Choksi in Belgium on charges of a $2 billion fraud marks a significant development in international law enforcement cooperation, as India seeks his extradition [SOURCE - Livemint].

MENA Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇧🇭 Bahrain, 🇪🇬 Egypt, 🇮🇷 Iran, 🇮🇶 Iraq, 🇮🇱 Israel, 🇯🇴 Jordan, 🇰🇼 Kuwait, 🇱🇧 Lebanon, 🇱🇾 Libya, 🇴🇲 Oman, 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia, 🇸🇾 Syria, 🇹🇳 Tunisia, 🇾🇪 Yemen

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇶🇦 Qatar, 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates

Regional News Summary

Syria has made notable progress in establishing diplomatic relations, with South Korea recently joining the list of countries recognizing the Syrian government. This marks a significant foreign policy achievement for Seoul. Meanwhile, Turkey and Israel have engaged in discussions aimed at preventing accidental conflicts in Syria, highlighting the ongoing complexities of regional security. In a parallel development, Iran and the United States have initiated talks in Oman, with both sides describing the discussions as "positive and productive" [SOURCE - ABC News].

However, tensions remain high, particularly between Israel and Syria. Israel has been accused of violating Syrian and Iraqi airspace, with Turkish President Erdogan accusing Israel of attempting to undermine the Syrian revolution [SOURCE - Al-Monitor]. The United States has announced plans to resume key foreign aid programs in Syria, signaling a renewed commitment to addressing the humanitarian crisis in the country [SOURCE - Khaama Press].

In Gaza, Egypt is taking a leading role in international efforts to broker a ceasefire. Reports indicate that Israel has informed Egypt about its deployment of heavy equipment in Rafah, which is seen as a crucial step towards a potential ceasefire. Hamas officials are optimistic about ongoing negotiations with Egyptian mediators, expressing hope for "real progress" in ending the conflict [SOURCE - Bangkok Post].

Amidst these developments, Yemen is facing a dire humanitarian crisis exacerbated by escalating violence. The US has conducted airstrikes in the region, resulting in civilian casualties, while the Houthis claim to have shot down a US drone in retaliation [SOURCE - ABC News]. The situation remains precarious, with reports indicating that millions of Yemenis are at risk due to aid cuts and ongoing conflict [SOURCE - Middle East Eye].

Jordan arrested 16 people accused of plotting to threaten national security [SOURCE - AlJazeera].

In Iraq, Türkiye and Iraq have signed a strategic cooperation deal aimed at strengthening economic ties, while Iran continues to assert its influence in the region, emphasizing the importance of its relationship with Iraq [SOURCE - Azernews]. This comes as Iran reportedly transfers long-range missiles to its proxies in Iraq, raising concerns about regional security [SOURCE - Ynet News].

The US and Iran began talks to limit Iran’s nuclear program on Saturday with US Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi meeting on Oman [SOURCE - ALJAzeera]

Carpe tomorrow!