Good morning.

🇻🇪 11 Killed in US Strike on Venezuelan Boat

President Trump announced a US military "kinetic" strike killed 11 people aboard a small boat he accused of smuggling drugs from Venezuela for the Tren de Aragua gang, marking the first known attack against alleged drug smugglers since increased Caribbean military deployment began. Trump shared aerial bombing footage on Truth Social warning "anybody even thinking about bringing drugs into the United States" to "BEWARE," as seven US warships and a nuclear submarine carry over 4,500 sailors and Marines in the region. The strike escalates tensions with Venezuelan President Maduro, who pledged to "declare a republic in arms" if attacked and accused Trump of "seeking regime change through military threat," while US intelligence reports contradict Trump's claims that Maduro controls Tren de Aragua, with a declassified National Intelligence Council report finding Venezuela's government "probably does not have a policy of cooperating with" the gang. More - Al Jazeera

🇵🇸 Israeli Reservists Deploy for Gaza Offensive

Thousands of Israeli reservists began reporting for duty as ground forces pushed into Gaza City's outskirts, with hospitals reporting over 50 Palestinians killed by strikes since midnight Tuesday as the military ordered nearly one million residents to evacuate south immediately. IDF Chief of Staff Lt Gen Eyal Zamir told reservists they're preparing for "decisive victory" in "Operation Gideon's Chariots II," though he reportedly warned Netanyahu the Gaza City plan would endanger 48 remaining hostages and require establishing military government there. UN officials called the forced displacement of hundreds of thousands "a recipe for further disaster" that could constitute war crimes, as global food experts confirmed famine in Gaza City will expand to central and southern areas by September's end, with 13 Palestinians dying from malnutrition in the past 24 hours alone bringing the war's total to 361 deaths. More - BBC

🇨🇳 Xi Vows to Defy 'Intimidation', Appears with Putin and Kim

President Xi Jinping hosted Putin and Kim Jong Un together for the first time since 1959 at China's massive military parade, creating a historic display of authoritarian unity against the US-led world order as Beijing showcased missiles capable of reaching American shores. Trump accused Xi of trying to "conspire against The United States of America" with the sanctioned leaders as the trio's appearance symbolized potential bloc formation based on authoritarian regimes, worrying Western observers about China's growing global influence with "uncomfortable bedfellows." Xi vowed to build a "world-class military" and "firmly safeguard" sovereignty in a veiled Taiwan reference, while defense stocks fell 7.1% as investors took profits, and Taiwan's President Lai called China's system resembling "fascism" with "intense domestic control" and "cult of the strongman leader." More - Bloomberg

Europe Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇧🇬 Bulgaria, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇦🇱 Albania, 🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇨🇭 Switzerland

Regional News Summary

Swiss Post has temporarily halted shipments of goods to the United States, a decision influenced by new US regulations and the expiration of the 'de minimis' loophole. This pause is part of a broader trend, with 25 nations suspending postal services to the US, citing the country's failure to comply with international postal agreements. This situation underscores growing tensions in global trade and logistics, as countries reassess their relationships with the US amidst regulatory uncertainties [SOURCE - Swissinfo].

Meanwhile, the Swiss medtech industry is advocating for a deal with the European Union to ensure the continued supply of medicines and medical devices, highlighting the sector's resilience despite ongoing economic challenges. However, the Swiss economy faces additional pressures, including a pilot shortage affecting the aviation industry and rising rents that could strain households [SOURCE - Swissinfo].

In France, political turmoil continues as President Macron expresses full support for his embattled Prime Minister amidst calls for a vote of confidence in Parliament. This instability raises concerns about the government's ability to navigate pressing economic issues, including a fiscal deficit that demands creative solutions. While inflation has cooled, the country grapples with rising child homelessness, prompting criticism from aid groups regarding political inaction [SOURCE - International Business Times].

Internationally, France is actively engaging with allies on various fronts, including sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program, which has drawn condemnation from Russia. Additionally, France, Germany, and Poland are collaborating to counter Russian interference in Moldova, reflecting a commitment to regional stability [SOURCE - Financial Times].

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine remains a focal point of international relations, with significant developments reported. Russian forces have made advances into the Dnipropetrovsk region, prompting Ukraine to launch a lithium project in collaboration with the US to bolster its mineral deals. In response to escalating tensions, NATO has pledged increased financial support for Ukraine, while the US has approved potential sales of military equipment, including Starlink services [SOURCE - France 24].

In Poland, President Duda's veto of a law extending support for Ukrainian refugees has sparked debate over the country's commitment to its eastern neighbor. This decision comes amid rising unemployment and a proposed digital services tax aimed at increasing revenue, despite pushback from the US [SOURCE - Notes from Poland].

As wildfires ravage Spain and Portugal, the environmental crisis has prompted urgent evacuations and highlighted the need for robust climate action. Spain is experiencing its hottest summer on record, complicating firefighting efforts and raising alarms about the impacts of climate change on public safety and infrastructure [SOURCE - BBC].

In the economic sphere, Italy's challenges are compounded by outdated infrastructure as it prepares to host the Euro 2032 tournament. The country is also grappling with rising workplace fatalities, prompting calls for stronger labor protections [SOURCE - Winnipeg Free Press].

MENA Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇪🇬 Egypt, 🇮🇷 Iran, 🇮🇶 Iraq, 🇮🇱 Israel, 🇰🇼 Kuwait, 🇱🇧 Lebanon, 🇱🇾 Libya, 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia, 🇸🇾 Syria, 🇹🇳 Tunisia, 🇾🇪 Yemen

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇧🇭 Bahrain, 🇯🇴 Jordan, 🇴🇲 Oman, 🇶🇦 Qatar, 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates

Regional News Summary

Syria is witnessing a potential thaw in its relations with Israel, as President Bashar al-Assad announced "advanced negotiations" for a security agreement with Israel. This comes amid increased Israeli military activity in Syria, including recent airstrikes that resulted in the deaths of six Syrian soldiers near Damascus. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has also indicated a willingness to withdraw forces from Lebanon if Hezbollah is disarmed, a statement that could have implications for Syria's security dynamics [SOURCE - Ynet News]. The United States is actively mediating these discussions, with a US envoy meeting Assad to explore regional developments [SOURCE - Al-Monitor].

In a historic move, Saudi Arabia and Syria have signed a $24 billion investment deal, marking a significant shift in their bilateral relations. This agreement spans multiple sectors, including energy and infrastructure, signaling a new era of cooperation [SOURCE - Times of India]. Additionally, Syria is strengthening ties with Italy, focusing on health sector cooperation [SOURCE - SANA].

However, the humanitarian situation in Syria remains dire, with a record number of aid workers killed, primarily due to the ongoing conflict. Despite this, some Syrian refugees are beginning to return home, a small sign of potential normalization in a country long ravaged by war [SOURCE - Syria Direct].

In Yemen, the conflict has escalated sharply, with Israeli airstrikes targeting the capital Sanaa, resulting in the death of at least ten people, including the Houthi-backed Prime Minister. These strikes were reportedly in retaliation for a missile attack from Houthi rebels, raising concerns about a broader regional conflict [SOURCE - DNA India]. The Houthis have vowed to respond harshly, further complicating the already volatile situation [SOURCE - ABNA24].

The humanitarian crisis in Yemen is worsening, with millions facing food insecurity. The World Food Programme has warned that without increased funding, the situation could deteriorate further [SOURCE - NDTV Profit].

In Egypt, the government is actively mediating the Israel-Hamas conflict, seeking to broker a ceasefire while also engaging in discussions with the UAE on regional stability [SOURCE - The Jerusalem Post]. However, Egypt's human rights record is under scrutiny, with calls from the UN for the country to end arbitrary detentions of critics [SOURCE - The Sun].

As tensions rise, Israel faces increasing international backlash over its military operations in Gaza, with protests erupting globally and various countries condemning its actions. The UK has announced it will recognize Palestine as an independent state, further straining Israel's diplomatic relations [SOURCE - India.com].

Carpe tomorrow!