Good morning.

We had a great response to yesterday’s announcement of our partnership with HumanRisks and are excited to build out our joint offering together. Thanks for all the kind notes. (In case you missed it, the full announcement is here)

Three headlines to start your day.

🇹🇼 China Simulates Attacks on Taiwan

China conducted a second day of "Strait Thunder-2025A" military exercises around Taiwan, simulating attacks on key ports and energy facilities with live-fire drills. China deployed the Shandong aircraft carrier group, with Taiwan reporting 76 Chinese military aircraft and 19 naval vessels in its vicinity over a 24-hour period. President William Lai condemned the exercises as "blatant military provocations" that threaten regional security, while Beijing continues to signal its determination to eventually unify with Taiwan either peacefully or by force. More - Al Jazeera

🇺🇸 ‘Liberation Day’ Tariffs Commence at 4:00pm ET

President Trump's sweeping new tariffs will take immediate effect following his Rose Garden announcement scheduled for 4:00pm ET, according to White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt. While specific rates remain undisclosed, Trump indicated they would be "lower than what they've been charging us" and that he's open to negotiations with foreign governments. The White House dismissed concerns about market volatility, with Leavitt confidently stating the economic strategy "is going to work" despite weeks of stock selloffs. More - Bloomberg

🇷🇺 + 🇨🇳 Chinese Foreign Minister Affirms Ties with Moscow

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with President Putin in Moscow, declaring the countries are "friends forever, never enemies" while discussing Ukraine peace efforts. Wang welcomed signs of normalizing US-Russia relations, a day after the Kremlin confirmed working on potential Ukraine peace ideas with the US. Putin announced preparations for Xi Jinping's symbolic visit to Moscow's Victory Day parade in May, marking the 80th anniversary of Nazi Germany's defeat. More - Al Jazeera

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Europe Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇱 Albania, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom

Europe News Summary

In Switzerland, ODDO BHF has appointed a new head for its private wealth management division, signaling a strategic move in the competitive financial sector. Meanwhile, UBS faces shareholder backlash as a group has rejected its pay and share buyback plans, raising concerns over compensation transparency [SOURCE - Yahoo Finance]. Additionally, a Swiss political party is advocating for restrictions on UBS's investment banking activities as part of broader capital rule negotiations [SOURCE - Yahoo Finance].

In France, President Macron has reaffirmed strong bilateral ties with Argentina, emphasizing France's commitment to supporting its partners [SOURCE - Mercopress]. Additionally, France is enhancing its academic collaboration with India, aiming to host 30,000 Indian students by 2030 [SOURCE - Times of India].

On the defense front, France is ramping up military support for Ukraine, pledging an additional €2 billion in aid while also collaborating with the UK to send military teams to bolster Ukraine's defenses against Russian aggression [SOURCE - Dimsum Daily]. This comes amid ongoing tensions surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, where both nations have agreed to a ceasefire in the Black Sea, although accusations of violations persist [SOURCE - BBC].

In Poland, the government is taking significant steps to enhance its energy security, including plans for its first nuclear plant and a $2 billion air defense deal with the US [SOURCE - Economic Times]. However, the country has also introduced a temporary suspension of asylum rights amid security concerns related to migration [SOURCE - Forbes].

In Serbia, mass protests against President Vučić's government have erupted, with demonstrators expressing discontent over various issues, including allegations of human rights abuses. The situation has escalated with reports of the use of sonic weapons against protesters, prompting international scrutiny and calls for accountability [SOURCE - AP News].

In Italy, the government is grappling with economic challenges, including rising inflation and the potential impact of US tariffs on its automotive and pharmaceutical sectors [SOURCE - The Journal]. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has also highlighted a deal with Albania on migrant repatriation as a step towards addressing the ongoing migrant crisis [SOURCE - ANSA].

MENA Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇧🇭 Bahrain, 🇪🇬 Egypt, 🇮🇷 Iran, 🇮🇶 Iraq, 🇮🇱 Israel, 🇰🇼 Kuwait, 🇱🇧 Lebanon, 🇱🇾 Libya, 🇸🇾 Syria, 🇹🇳 Tunisia, 🇾🇪 Yemen

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇯🇴 Jordan, 🇴🇲 Oman, 🇶🇦 Qatar, 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia, 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates

MENA News Summary

Syria remains at a critical juncture as the United Nations Special Envoy, Geir Pedersen, cautions that the nation could either descend back into violence or embark on a path toward peace. In a bid to secure a stable future, Syria's Minister of Economy has engaged with World Bank representatives, while Türkiye has called on the international community to bolster support for Syria. Italy has also pledged €68 million in aid, underscoring a collective effort to stabilize the war-torn country [SOURCE - Winnipeg Free Press] [SOURCE - Hürriyet Daily News] [SOURCE - TimesLIVE].

However, regional tensions are escalating, particularly with Israel's recent airstrikes targeting the Druze community in Syria, which have drawn condemnation from Egypt and Iran. The Organisation of Islamic Cooperation has also denounced these actions, highlighting the growing unrest in the region [SOURCE - Foreign Policy] [SOURCE - Syrian Arab News Agency] [SOURCE - Khaama Press].

In a significant political development, Syria's interim president has appointed a new government, which has been welcomed by Ankara and Germany, signaling a potential shift in diplomatic relations [SOURCE - Al-Monitor] [SOURCE - Hürriyet Daily News].

The Central Bank has reported a decline in inflation, yet the Ministry of Health has issued a humanitarian appeal for cancer medicines, highlighting the ongoing health crisis [SOURCE - CBS News] [SOURCE - Syrian Arab News Agency].

In Egypt, the geopolitical landscape is shifting as the UAE President warns that US support for Egypt could be jeopardized if Cairo does not accept Gazans. This comes amid Egyptian mediators' efforts in Qatar to facilitate ceasefire talks, emphasizing Egypt's role as a regional peace broker [SOURCE - The Jerusalem Post] [SOURCE - Middle East Eye].

Economically, Egypt has secured a $1.65 billion deal with China for steel factories in Suez, marking a significant investment in its industrial sector. Additionally, the African Development Bank has provided a $76.5 million loan to support small and medium-sized enterprises in Egypt [SOURCE - Al-Monitor] [SOURCE - ECNS].

In Yemen, the US has intensified its military operations, conducting over 40 airstrikes that reportedly resulted in significant civilian casualties, including women and children. This escalation has drawn international condemnation, particularly from Iran, which accused the US of "slaughtering" Yemenis [SOURCE - Daily Excelsior] [SOURCE - Middle East Eye].

In response to the US airstrikes, Houthi rebels have launched missile attacks on Israel and a US warship, further complicating the already volatile situation in the region [SOURCE - United with Israel] [SOURCE - India Today].

As the conflict in Yemen continues to exacerbate the humanitarian crisis, with reports indicating that one in two children are severely malnourished, the international community faces mounting pressure to address the dire conditions resulting from a decade of war [SOURCE - The Daily Blog]

Carpe tomorrow!