Good morning.

🇺🇦 Yesterday was the most consequential day for Ukraine since the Russian invasion three years ago. US statements after the talks between the US and Russia did little to push back Russia’s demands that Ukraine cede any territory held by Russia, would not join NATO and that no foreign troops be stationed in the country. But the real damage came at a press conference Tuesday afternoon when President Donald Trump blamed Ukraine for starting the war, attacked President Zelenskyy personally, and demanded that presidential elections take place as part of any peace deal. Trump and Zelenskyy have had a difficult relationship but this is the most hostile Trump has been towards the Ukrainian leader and this seems to cement Zelenskyy’s exclusion from negotiations. [More - Politico]

With European leaders also shut out of the talks, it seems certain that Ukraine will have a deal imposed on them: one that gives President Putin a lot of what he wants and allows President Trump to say he brought peace to the region. But this is also a deal that leaves Ukraine smaller, weaker, poorer and with no security umbrella. Meanwhile, Moscow is well-positioned to install a pro-Russia candidate at the next set of elections giving them victory in almost every dimension.

However, beyond Kyiv, this deal also sends a clear message to Europe: Trump’s White House sees this region as part of Russia’s sphere of influence and they should not expect any US support in the event of Russian incursions into Eastern Europe.

Europe Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇱 Albania, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom

Europe News Summary

Switzerland is on the verge of a significant policy shift as a majority of politicians have voted in favor of legalizing recreational cannabis. If the proposal is approved, it would empower the federal government to regulate the sale of marijuana, moving it from its current classification as a narcotic. The plan includes establishing a state-controlled monopoly to oversee cannabis sales, marking a notable change in the country’s approach to drug policy [SOURCE - SWISSINFO CH].

In a separate political development, a Swiss government commission has advised against holding a mandatory referendum on a new institutional package aimed at strengthening ties with the European Union. This recommendation reflects ongoing debates about Switzerland's relationship with the EU, which remains a contentious issue in Swiss politics [SOURCE - LENWS].

Meanwhile, Switzerland's refusal to grant amnesty to its citizens fighting in Ukraine has drawn criticism from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He has called for a unified European military force to counterbalance the growing military presence of the United States in the region [SOURCE - RT].

In economic news, Swiss businesses are optimistic about growth prospects, particularly following a partnership between IIT Madras and Roche Diagnostics for research and development projects. This collaboration is expected to enhance innovation and economic activity in Switzerland [SOURCE - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE].

Across the border in France, the strategic partnership between India and France continues to strengthen, highlighted by Prime Minister Modi's recent visit. During his trip, Modi inaugurated the Indian Consulate and emphasized India's reforms, inviting French businesses to invest in India [SOURCE - FREE PRESS JOURNAL]. Additionally, India and France are set to collaborate on developing small modular nuclear reactors, a move expected to bolster France's energy sector [SOURCE - BBC].

France is also addressing its military presence in Africa, with a timeline established for the withdrawal of troops from Senegal as part of a broader restructuring of its military commitments [SOURCE - RT].

In the context of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, foreign ministers from various countries are set to meet to discuss expanding military aid to Ukraine. This meeting comes amid rising concerns over the potential for a peace deal that could compromise Ukraine's territorial integrity [SOURCE - VOA News].

The situation in Ukraine remains precarious, with President Zelenskyy suggesting that territory could be traded in peace negotiations, a proposal that has sparked criticism and concern over Ukraine's sovereignty [SOURCE - IFP News]. Meanwhile, the US has denied claims of abandoning Ukraine, amidst fears that recent diplomatic overtures could signal a shift in support [SOURCE - BANGKOK POST].

In Serbia, thousands have protested against corruption, demanding greater transparency from the government. This unrest coincides with the arrest of several officials, including the mayor of Obrenovac, highlighting the ongoing struggle against corruption in the region [SOURCE - PROTOTHEMA].

MENA Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇧🇭 Bahrain, 🇪🇬 Egypt, 🇮🇷 Iran, 🇮🇶 Iraq, 🇮🇱 Israel, 🇯🇴 Jordan, 🇰🇼 Kuwait, 🇱🇧 Lebanon, 🇱🇾 Libya, 🇸🇾 Syria, 🇹🇳 Tunisia, 🇾🇪 Yemen

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇴🇲 Oman, 🇶🇦 Qatar, 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia, 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates

MENA News Summary

Turkey has taken a notable step towards normalizing trade with Syria, implementing new regulations that signal a thaw in relations between the two nations. This move is expected to enhance economic cooperation and could pave the way for further diplomatic engagement [SOURCE - Hurriyet Daily News].

Meanwhile, regional and global players are increasing their support for Syria amidst its ongoing economic crisis. Egypt has reaffirmed its commitment to Syria's stability, while Saudi Arabia's humanitarian volunteer program, "Amal," has been recognized for its efforts in the country. Pakistan has also voiced concerns over escalating violence in certain Syrian areas [SOURCE - Syrian Arab News Agency].

Syria's economic situation remains dire, with a cash crunch leading to a significant reduction in imports and a shortage of fresh banknotes. The central bank has resorted to flying in cash from Russia to address these shortages [SOURCE - Financial Times]. In response, Russia has announced plans to strengthen its relations with Syria, indicating a potential shift in alliances [SOURCE - Syrian Arab News Agency].

As Syria prepares for a new government to be formed on March 1, the G7 has reiterated its support for the country's sovereignty and territorial integrity, emphasizing the need for a transition that includes all Syrians [SOURCE - Syrian Arab News Agency].

In the realm of security, intelligence agencies are intensifying efforts against Islamic State leaders, while a recent US airstrike has eliminated a senior al-Qaeda commander in Syria, highlighting ongoing counterterrorism operations in the region [SOURCE - Voice of America].

The humanitarian situation remains precarious, with thousands of displaced persons returning to their homes, yet many refugees express reluctance due to ongoing instability [SOURCE - Scoop Independent News]. Pakistan has also dispatched relief goods to Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, reflecting a regional commitment to humanitarian assistance [SOURCE - Daily Times].

In Gaza, tensions are escalating as Israel threatens to resume intense military operations unless Palestinian captives are released. This warning comes amidst ongoing negotiations to preserve a fragile ceasefire [SOURCE - Hurriyet Daily News]. The situation is further complicated by US President Trump's insistence on a controversial plan for Gaza, which has faced pushback from regional leaders, including Jordan's King Abdullah II, who has rejected proposals for Palestinian displacement [SOURCE - France 24].

In Yemen, the Houthi rebels have threatened to escalate attacks if the Gaza ceasefire collapses, reflecting the interconnected nature of conflicts in the region [SOURCE - National Interest]. Pakistan has called for effective diplomacy to address the multifaceted crisis in Yemen, emphasizing the need for a peaceful resolution [SOURCE - APP].

As the region grapples with these challenges, the United Arab Emirates has strengthened its maritime partnership with India, enhancing security cooperation amid rising tensions [SOURCE - India Today]. This partnership reflects a broader trend of regional states seeking to bolster security and economic ties in an increasingly volatile environment.

Carpe tomorrow!