Good morning.

🇳🇬 Shell allegedly ignored repeated warnings about corruption and mismanagement in its $1bn oil pollution clean-up operation in Nigeria's Ogoniland region. Whistleblowers claim that Shell was aware that the clean-up project was awarding contracts to inexperienced companies, falsifying lab results, and inflating costs. The revelations come as Shell faces a High Court trial in London this week, where 50,000 Ogoniland residents seek compensation for oil spills that occurred between 1989 and 2020. [More - BBC]

⚖️ President Trump signed an executive order to pause enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA), which prohibits US companies from bribing foreign officials for business advantages. The order directs the US Attorney General to pause cases for 180 days, review past cases and issue new guidelines. Trump argues that current enforcement puts American companies at a competitive disadvantage internationally. [More - Bloomberg]

🇵🇸 The Israel - Hamas ceasefire seems close to collapse as offhand remarks by President Trump — that all hostages should be released by Saturday — have been echoed by Israeli leaders, significantly altering the terms of the deal. Hamas will refuse to accept these changes and still accuses Israel of breaking the terms of the deal, specifically around military action in Gaza and food deliveries, making the collapse of the ceasefire all but certain. Israeli hardliners are further emboldened by Trump’s comments on the need to expel Palestinians from Gaza despite widespread condemnation and a rejection of this plan from neighboring states. [More - AlJazeera]

Key Metrics

WTI is $73.52 (Down)

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Wheat is $185.794 (Up)

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EuroDollar is $1.04 (Down)

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YuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)

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Graphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days

Metrics via AlphaVantage updated Feb 11 2025 21:16 UTC

Europe Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇱 Albania, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine

More Stable

🇭🇷 Croatia

Unchanged

🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom

Europe News Summary

Switzerland's economy is facing a downturn, with the retail sector experiencing a slight decline in sales despite a surge in online shopping. This trend has raised concerns about consumer spending, compounded by a rise in the unemployment rate to 3.0 percent, the highest since 2021. The Swiss government has attempted to bolster the economy through initiatives such as a minimum wage proposal, which was narrowly rejected by voters, indicating potential hurdles in implementing a nationwide wage policy. Additionally, new electric car registrations have fallen, reflecting changing consumer preferences and increased competition in the automotive market. The government's ecological overhaul initiative was also voted down, further complicating efforts to reduce carbon emissions. Meanwhile, Switzerland's bid to renegotiate ties with the European Union has hit a snag, with the government halting signature collection for its “Europe initiative” [SOURCE - Swissinfo].

In France, the government has successfully passed its budget despite a censure vote from opposition lawmakers, a move seen as crucial for the country's economic recovery. Meanwhile, France has delivered its first Mirage 2000 fighter jets to Ukraine, enhancing Ukraine's military capabilities amid ongoing conflict with Russia. Additionally, France has signed a significant uranium deal with Mongolia, which is expected to bolster its nuclear energy sector [SOURCE - Financial Times].

Poland's relationship with the European Union remains strained, as the EU's high court upheld a €320 million fine against the country for rule-of-law violations. This decision has left Poland unable to reclaim the funds, highlighting ongoing governance issues. In a provocative statement, Poland's President suggested that the EU could interfere in elections to choose his successor, further escalating tensions. However, Poland has launched EU-funded subsidies to encourage electric car purchases, aiming to transition to cleaner energy [SOURCE - Notes from Poland].

As the conflict in Ukraine continues, US defense companies are profiting significantly from the situation, with President Zelensky calling for increased financial support from the West. However, Zelensky's controversial calls for NATO to provide nuclear arms have drawn criticism from Russia, which warns that such a move could lead to catastrophic consequences. Meanwhile, Ukraine's allies are cautioning against a return to Russian gas, which could undermine efforts to weaken Russia's economy [SOURCE - RT].

In Italy, the economy shows signs of a fragile recovery, with retail sales increasing by 0.6%. However, the country is grappling with a major scandal involving 179 individuals linked to a fraud investigation worth over €100 million, raising concerns about economic stability. Italy has also taken a bold stance on international issues by refusing to endorse sanctions against the International Criminal Court, highlighting a divergence from other European nations [SOURCE - RTT News].

Germany is facing challenges in its industrial output and foreign trade, with upcoming data releases expected to impact the economic landscape. The Bundeswehr has been criticized for lacking a single combat-ready division, raising questions about Germany's military preparedness amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Additionally, the country has recorded a trade surplus, but concerns over US tariffs loom large [SOURCE - RTT News].

In Greece, the government has declared a state of emergency on the island of Santorini following a series of earthquakes, while tensions with Turkey have escalated over maritime disputes. Despite these challenges, Greece's economy is showing signs of growth, particularly in the tourism sector, which is expected to benefit from increased investments [SOURCE - ABC News].

MENA Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇧🇭 Bahrain, 🇪🇬 Egypt, 🇮🇷 Iran, 🇮🇶 Iraq, 🇮🇱 Israel, 🇱🇧 Lebanon, 🇱🇾 Libya, 🇴🇲 Oman, 🇸🇾 Syria, 🇹🇳 Tunisia, 🇾🇪 Yemen

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇯🇴 Jordan, 🇰🇼 Kuwait, 🇶🇦 Qatar, 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia, 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates

MENA News Summary

The United States is reportedly drafting plans to withdraw all troops from Syria, a move that follows recent remarks from former President Donald Trump. This decision comes amid an expanding military presence from Israel and Turkey in the region, raising concerns about the potential for increased instability [SOURCE - NBC News]. Concurrently, Russia is negotiating to maintain its military bases in Syria, as President Vladimir Putin seeks to solidify his influence in the region [SOURCE - RT].

Turkey's assertive role in Syria is underscored by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's confidence in the Syrian populace's ability to rebuild their nation. However, this has raised questions about Turkey's intentions and the potential for further destabilization [SOURCE - SANA]. The future of ISIS detainees in Syria remains precarious, with no clear resolution in sight, posing a significant threat to regional security [SOURCE - JPost].

In Gaza, Egypt has emerged as a vocal opponent of President Trump's controversial plan to relocate Palestinians from Gaza to third countries, warning that it could jeopardize the peace treaty with Israel and regional stability [SOURCE - Business Mirror]. President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi has called for an emergency Arab summit to address these concerns, reflecting the deepening rift among regional actors [SOURCE - ABC News].

The humanitarian crisis in Gaza is exacerbated by ongoing conflict and economic strife, with millions in need of assistance [SOURCE - ReliefWeb]. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has reiterated its position that any normalization of relations with Israel must be accompanied by the establishment of a Palestinian state, a stance that underscores the complexities of Middle Eastern diplomacy [SOURCE - Livemint].

In Yemen, the conflict continues to escalate, with a recent attack resulting in the deaths of two Israeli reservists, highlighting the ongoing tensions between Israel and Palestine [SOURCE - JPost]. The humanitarian situation remains dire, with Yemen's economy on the brink of collapse due to the ongoing conflict and a freeze on US aid [SOURCE - Jurist].

In Lebanon, a new government has been formed after years of political deadlock, a development that could pave the way for much-needed reforms and stability [SOURCE - JPost]. However, the inclusion of Hezbollah in the government complicates the situation, as the US has drawn a "red line" against the group's participation [SOURCE - Economic Times].

Amid these developments, Qatar has expressed its willingness to mediate in the ongoing US-Iran tensions, positioning itself as a potential facilitator for dialogue [SOURCE - TASS]. Iran, meanwhile, continues to seek support from allies like Russia as it faces renewed US sanctions [SOURCE - TASS].

Carpe tomorrow!