Good morning.

🧾 Tariffs remain one of the few issues that President Trump has yet to put into effect after a second frenzied day of activity at the White House. In press conferences, Trump said that 25% levies on Canadian and Mexican imports would begin on February 1st but delays may indicate that there’s hope for some deal before February 1st. Still, there’s no public sign of negotiations, and neither Canada nor Mexico would want to appear weak at the outset of four more years of a Trump White House, so the likelihood of some tariffs seems high.

🇨🇳 Trump alluded to an additional 10% on Chinese imports without specifying a date and it’s likely that he’ll want the threat of tariffs on the table for any upcoming discussions with China where everything from TikTok ownership to Taiwan are up for discussion. [More - Bloomberg]

🇵🇸 Raids by Israeli security forces and settlers have increased in the West Bank since Sunday’s ceasefire in Gaza. Reports this morning are that 2,000 families have been expelled from the Jenin refugee camp while raids and attacks continue. [More - AlJazeera]

🇨🇴 The Colombian government has deployed thousands of troops into the northwest region bordering Venezuela to deal with an upsurge in fighting between the National Liberation Army (ELN) and Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), which has killed over 100 and displaced tens of thousands more. [More - AlJazeera]

There was a glitch with the metrics this morning so it’s straight on to the stability ratings and news.

Europe Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇱 Albania, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom

Regional News Summary

Switzerland's economy continues to show resilience, with a recent report indicating growth driven by investments in technology and innovation. The adoption of a new Bankruptcies bill aims to provide debtors with rehabilitation opportunities, reflecting a commitment to economic recovery amidst global uncertainties [SOURCE - Investec]. Additionally, Switzerland is advancing in autonomous driving technology through a partnership with Chinese company WeRide, enhancing transportation safety [SOURCE - ECNS].

However, the country is not without challenges. Protests erupted during the World Economic Forum in Davos, where demonstrators voiced concerns over wealth inequality and the forum's role in exacerbating economic disparities [SOURCE - Swissinfo]. This backdrop of civil unrest coincides with Switzerland's ongoing diplomatic engagements, including hosting global leaders to discuss investment opportunities [SOURCE - The Hindu].

In France, the economic landscape is marked by a slight rebound in the stock market, with the CAC 40 index rising 0.31% [SOURCE - Investing.com]. However, the Bank of France's suggestion to cut interest rates on key savings accounts raises concerns about the long-term implications for consumer confidence [SOURCE - Investing.com]. Additionally, France faces challenges in rebuilding cyclone-hit Mayotte, highlighting the ongoing recovery efforts needed in the region [SOURCE - VOA News].

On the international front, France remains committed to its military partnership with Ukraine, with the delivery of jet fighters on schedule [SOURCE - SpaceDaily]. This commitment comes amid rising tensions with Russia, as both nations engage in a series of diplomatic disputes [SOURCE - India.com].

In the UK, a new partnership agreement with Ukraine aims to bolster military cooperation, with Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer pledging £2.3 billion in support [SOURCE - BBC]. This agreement underscores the UK's commitment to Ukraine amidst ongoing conflict, as Russian forces claim territorial gains in eastern Ukraine, raising skepticism among Ukrainian officials [SOURCE - Investing.com].

Meanwhile, the energy crisis continues to impact Moldova, where the government has blocked gas flows to the breakaway region of Transnistria, leading to a humanitarian crisis [SOURCE - TASS]. The situation has prompted Moldova to reconsider its stance on gas supplies amid rising tensions and humanitarian concerns [SOURCE - POLITICO].

MENA Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇧🇭 Bahrain, 🇪🇬 Egypt, 🇮🇷 Iran, 🇮🇶 Iraq, 🇮🇱 Israel, 🇯🇴 Jordan, 🇱🇧 Lebanon, 🇱🇾 Libya, 🇸🇾 Syria, 🇹🇳 Tunisia, 🇾🇪 Yemen

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇰🇼 Kuwait, 🇴🇲 Oman, 🇶🇦 Qatar, 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia, 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates

Regional News Summary

In Syria, the fragile future of the nation is increasingly influenced by regional power dynamics, particularly with Turkey's assertive stance. President Erdogan has issued stark warnings to Israel regarding its military presence in Syria, threatening to "crush all terrorists" if Israel does not withdraw. This rhetoric has heightened tensions, prompting a mix of concern and defiance from Israeli officials [SOURCE - The Conversation]. Concurrently, Israel's military operations have intensified, with recent reports indicating the confiscation of over 3,300 weapons from Syrian territory as part of border security measures [SOURCE - The Yeshiva World].

The humanitarian situation in Syria remains dire, with the United Nations Human Rights Chief advocating for the lifting of Western sanctions to facilitate reconstruction efforts [SOURCE - ABC News]. The European Union has pledged €235 million for humanitarian relief in 2025, underscoring the urgent need for international cooperation in rebuilding the war-torn nation [SOURCE - Scoop Empire].

In parallel, the Gaza Strip is witnessing a fragile ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, following intense negotiations. This deal, which includes a hostage release component, is seen as a crucial step toward reducing regional tensions, although skepticism remains regarding its long-term viability [SOURCE - VOA News]. The ceasefire has been met with mixed reactions, with some Palestinian officials expressing frustration over ongoing Israeli airstrikes that have resulted in civilian casualties [SOURCE - Christian Science Monitor].

As tensions simmer, Yemen remains embroiled in a humanitarian crisis, with over 19.5 million people in need of assistance [SOURCE - Al-Monitor]. The Houthi movement has vowed to continue its attacks against Israel-linked vessels in the Red Sea, further complicating the security landscape [SOURCE - Investing.com]. Additionally, the United States has imposed sanctions on a Yemeni bank with ties to the Houthis, aiming to increase pressure on the group amid escalating tensions [SOURCE - Algemeiner].

In Libya, the Prime Minister has ordered cooperation with Interpol to combat human trafficking, a pressing issue as migrants continue to attempt perilous journeys to Europe [SOURCE - Daily Times]. Meanwhile, Türkiye's Turkish Petroleum Corporation is exploring investment opportunities in Libya's energy sector, signaling a potential revival of the country's oil and gas industry [SOURCE - Hurriyet Daily News].

Carpe tomorrow!