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🇺🇦 Russia Considers Air Truce Offer

Russia is weighing an air truce with Ukraine as a potential concession to Trump ahead of US envoy Steve Witkoff's visit this week, though Moscow remains determined to continue the war without a general ceasefire. The proposal could involve pausing drone and missile strikes as a deescalation gesture, provided Ukraine also agrees, as Putin seeks to avoid threatened secondary sanctions while his forces continue battlefield advances. Trump has grown frustrated with Putin's refusal to agree to ceasefire during six phone calls since February, threatening heavy tariffs on countries buying Russian oil starting Friday, while Belarus President Lukashenko publicly raised the "air truce" concept during recent remarks with Putin. More - Bloomberg

🇵🇸 Reports: Netanyahu Plans Full Gaza Reoccupation

Reports indicate that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will propose fully reoccupying the Gaza Strip to his security cabinet despite opposition from military chiefs, with a senior official saying "we're going for the full conquest of Gaza Strip - and defeating Hamas." The plan faces criticism from hostage families fearing for 20 captives believed alive, 600 retired security officials urging Trump to pressure Netanyahu, and polls showing three-quarters of Israelis favor a ceasefire deal instead. The proposal comes after ceasefire talks collapsed and Hamas released videos of emaciated Israeli hostages, while Israel currently controls 75% of Gaza where 90% of 2.1 million Palestinians have been displaced and humanitarian groups warn of starvation. More - BBC

🇺🇸 BLS Worries Threaten $2 Trillion Treasuries Market

The $2 trillion market for Treasury inflation-protected securities faces "enormous risk" if the Bureau of Labor Statistics becomes politicized, bond investors warn after Trump fired BLS chief Erika McEntarfer following a weak jobs report. TIPS bonds adjust their face value based on consumer price index data calculated by the BLS, making trust in government statistics crucial for the market's integrity. JPMorgan's chief US economist noted that "even seemingly innocuous technical changes" to CPI calculation methods could significantly impact inflation readings, with EU methodology potentially reducing annual inflation by 20 basis points. More - Bloomberg

🇱🇧 Hezbollah Rejects Disarmament Amid Lebanon Push

Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem declared the group will not lay down weapons under Israeli fire, saying resistance to Israel must be discussed through national consensus rather than imposed timelines, as Lebanon's cabinet announced the army will bring all arms under state control by year's end. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam affirmed "the state's duty to monopolize the possession of weapons" after a six-hour cabinet meeting, while Qassem warned missiles would "rain down on Israel" if it resumed broad warfare. The standoff comes amid US pressure on Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah despite the group's weakened but still significant military and political power following last year's devastating war with Israel. More - Al Jazeera

Europe Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇱 Albania, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇧🇬 Bulgaria, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇸🇪 Sweden

Regional News Summary

Switzerland is grappling with significant economic challenges following the imposition of a 39% tariff by the United States, effective immediately. This tariff, part of a broader U.S. strategy affecting numerous countries, is expected to have profound implications for Switzerland's export-driven economy, impacting households and businesses alike. Swiss authorities have expressed their commitment to ongoing negotiations with the U.S. to seek a resolution, but with no immediate deal in sight, the economic outlook remains precarious. The tourism sector, in particular, may suffer as travelers face increased costs, potentially deterring visitors and further straining the economy [SOURCE - The Hindu BusinessLine].

In addition to trade woes, Switzerland is also facing environmental challenges, with around 25 households in Brienz preparing to relocate due to an imminent landslide threat [SOURCE - SwissInfo]. Meanwhile, Glencore has reported a significant decline in copper production, raising concerns about the mining sector's future [SOURCE - SwissInfo]. On a more positive note, UBS has announced a strong second-quarter profit, doubling its earnings to $2.4 billion, aided by regulatory adjustments [SOURCE - The Manila Times].

Across Europe, the economic landscape is similarly turbulent. European shares experienced their largest daily drop since April in response to the U.S. tariffs, signaling widespread concern about the implications for global trade [SOURCE - The Economic Times].  

In the realm of international relations, France has taken a bold step by recognizing the state of Palestine, joining the UK and Canada in this significant diplomatic shift. This decision has drawn criticism from Israel, with some suggesting it could lead to further tensions in the region [SOURCE - The Conversation]. France has also condemned Israeli settler violence as "terrorism," further straining its relationship with Israel [SOURCE - The Hindu].

Meanwhile, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine continues to escalate, with recent Russian strikes resulting in numerous casualties, including a devastating attack on a penal colony in Zaporizhzhia [SOURCE - The Hindu]. In response to the conflict, U.S. President Donald Trump has issued a new ultimatum to Russian President Vladimir Putin, calling for a ceasefire [SOURCE - Daily Excelsior]. The U.S. Senate is also moving to increase military aid to Ukraine, reflecting ongoing support for the embattled nation [SOURCE - The Washington Post].

In the business sector, Ireland is making significant investments in its future, with a €112 billion national development plan aimed at enhancing infrastructure over the next decade. However, concerns remain about the feasibility of these ambitious projects [SOURCE - BBC]. The country is also positioning itself to play a leading role in the global semiconductor industry, which could create thousands of jobs [SOURCE - Science Business].

MENA Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇧🇭 Bahrain, 🇪🇬 Egypt, 🇮🇷 Iran, 🇮🇶 Iraq, 🇮🇱 Israel, 🇯🇴 Jordan, 🇱🇧 Lebanon, 🇱🇾 Libya, 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia, 🇸🇾 Syria, 🇹🇳 Tunisia, 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates, 🇾🇪 Yemen

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇰🇼 Kuwait, 🇴🇲 Oman, 🇶🇦 Qatar

Regional News Summary

Syria's political landscape is evolving as Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad announced parliamentary elections scheduled for September, a move interpreted as a step towards political reform. This announcement coincides with Iran's reaffirmation of support for Syria's sovereignty, as Tehran's envoy to the UN condemned any attempts to undermine it [SOURCE - ABNA24]. However, tensions persist, particularly with Israel, where experts suggest Turkey may pose a greater challenge than Iran. Notably, Israel's defense minister is set to meet his Syrian counterpart in Baku to discuss security issues [SOURCE - Jerusalem Post].

Economically, Syria is poised to receive its first gas shipment from Azerbaijan in August, marking a pivotal moment for its energy sector [SOURCE - AzerNews]. Additionally, Syria and Italy have signed a EUR 3 million agreement to bolster the country's health response [SOURCE - SANA].

In Gaza, the humanitarian crisis has escalated dramatically, with reports of famine and starvation. Israel has faced accusations of "weaponizing hunger," prompting international criticism and calls for humanitarian aid [SOURCE - Malay Mail]. Amidst this turmoil, Hamas has declared it will not disarm unless an independent Palestinian state is established [SOURCE - Algemeiner].

The regional dynamics are further complicated by the involvement of various nations. Pakistan has called for a ceasefire and urgent aid for Gaza, while Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt have urged Hamas to disarm [SOURCE - Daily Times]. In a related incident, two men were forcibly disappeared in Egypt after protesting the Gaza blockade [SOURCE - Middle East Eye].

The Houthis in Yemen have escalated tensions by threatening to target ships linked to Israel and potentially close the Bab al-Mandab strait, a critical maritime route [SOURCE - RT]. This move is seen as a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict, further complicating the regional security landscape.

In Iraq, security concerns are mounting as violence has surged, with reports of militia attacks and drone strikes threatening public safety and oil production [SOURCE - Jerusalem Post]. The Iraqi Prime Minister has announced that forces thwarted numerous militia attacks during recent conflicts [SOURCE - The Yeshiva World].

Carpe tomorrow!