Good morning.

🏴‍☠️ Trade War(s) Kick Off

In response to US tariffs, Canada refused to concede to American pressure and responded with reciprocal measures. China and Mexico have also vowed retaliatory measures to come soon. However, by evening, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that tariffs could be lifted as early as Wednesday, deepening confusion. [More - Bloomberg]

🇵🇸 Arab Leaders Publish Gaza Plan to Counter Trump’s Middle East Riviera Vision

Arab leaders approved a $53 billion Gaza reconstruction plan at an emergency Cairo summit, directly challenging President Trump's controversial "Middle East Riviera" proposal that suggested relocating Palestinians. Egypt's 91-page blueprint emphasizes Palestinian rights and envisions Gaza managed by Palestinian technocrats under international peacekeeping, with reconstruction occurring in three phases over several years. The plan explicitly rejects "any displacement, whether voluntary or forced" while calling for progress toward a two-state solution that Israel's Netanyahu firmly opposes. More - BBC

Europe Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇱 Albania, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom

Europe News Summary

Switzerland's economy is navigating a complex landscape marked by both challenges and opportunities. In January, Swiss exports surged to a six-year high, despite a widening foreign trade deficit that increased by 22 percent to $7.5 billion. This growth in exports is a positive sign, yet it contrasts with the struggles faced by some Swiss companies, such as Feintool, which reported lower annual sales amid a difficult market environment in Europe. Additionally, budget cuts are impacting preventive health campaigns, raising concerns about the country's healthcare system [SOURCE - Financial Times].

In the realm of foreign policy, Switzerland continues to express support for Ukraine, advocating for the integration of Ukrainian refugees into the workforce and condemning Russian aggression. The Swiss government is also set to host a conference on the occupied Palestinian territories, reinforcing its commitment to diplomacy and conflict resolution [SOURCE - Swissinfo].

Meanwhile, France is bolstering its defense capabilities amid rising geopolitical tensions. The French government is seeking to acquire 30 new Dassault Rafale fighter jets and is working with the UK to formulate a peace plan for Ukraine. This comes as France aims to protect its domestic industries from high taxes, which have been criticized by business leaders, including the CEO of Michelin [SOURCE - National Interest].

Spain is experiencing an economic boom, driven by foreign investment and rising property prices, particularly in the Balearics. However, inflation has also surged to 3.0%, raising concerns about the sustainability of this growth. The influx of expatriates, particularly from the US, has added to the housing market's pressures, leading to incidents such as a British couple losing their home to squatters [SOURCE - The Olive Press].

In Eastern Europe, the situation remains tense as Ukraine continues to receive strong support from European nations. The UK has pledged £2.26 billion in aid, while France and the UK are collaborating on a ceasefire plan. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has rejected calls for an immediate ceasefire, emphasizing the need for security before any agreements can be made [SOURCE - Financial Times].

Germany is also undergoing a political shift, with the likely next Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, advocating for tighter border controls and a move towards greater independence from the US. This shift is coupled with a focus on European sovereignty, which may impact Germany's foreign policy and military strategies [SOURCE - Forbes].

In Greece, a massive protest involving over a million citizens has erupted, demanding safety reforms two years after a devastating train crash. The government is attempting to ease tensions while addressing public safety concerns, reflecting the ongoing challenges in the country [SOURCE - Breitbart].

MENA Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇪🇬 Egypt, 🇮🇷 Iran, 🇮🇶 Iraq, 🇮🇱 Israel, 🇱🇧 Lebanon, 🇱🇾 Libya, 🇴🇲 Oman, 🇸🇾 Syria, 🇹🇳 Tunisia, 🇾🇪 Yemen

More Stable

🇯🇴 Jordan

Unchanged

🇧🇭 Bahrain, 🇰🇼 Kuwait, 🇶🇦 Qatar, 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia, 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates

MENA News Summary

Israel has intensified its military operations, launching airstrikes in southern Syria that resulted in the deaths of two individuals and extensive damage to military targets. These strikes were framed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as a necessary response to the increasing presence of Iranian-backed forces in the region. The Israeli Defense Forces confirmed that these actions were part of a broader strategy to ensure the demilitarization of the border area, a demand that has not garnered public support from the United States, despite its concerns over Iranian influence in Syria [SOURCE - The Times of India].

Simultaneously, the humanitarian situation in Gaza remains precarious. Egypt has been actively mediating between Israel and Hamas to secure a long-term ceasefire, but recent reports indicate that progress has stalled, with both sides accusing each other of violating ceasefire terms. The expiration of the initial truce has left the region in a state of uncertainty, exacerbated by Israel's decision to block humanitarian aid, a move condemned by both Egypt and Saudi Arabia as a violation of international norms [SOURCE - Newser].

The regional diplomatic landscape is also shifting, with Qatar playing a pivotal role in facilitating discussions aimed at resolving the Gaza crisis. Qatar has criticized Israel's blockade of aid as a blatant violation of ceasefire agreements and has been working to ensure that humanitarian assistance reaches those in need [SOURCE - Voice of America].

Meanwhile, the geopolitical dynamics are further complicated by the growing influence of Iran, which has been accused of expanding its military capabilities, including advancements in its nuclear program. The United States has responded with sanctions targeting companies supplying drone parts to Iran, reflecting a broader strategy to counter Tehran's regional ambitions [SOURCE - Khaama].

As these tensions unfold, the economic ramifications are becoming increasingly evident. The Syrian business community is suffering under the weight of an ongoing economic crisis, exacerbated by the conflict and government mismanagement. This situation is mirrored in Lebanon, where severe food shortages have prompted international concern, particularly regarding the welfare of children affected by the economic downturn [SOURCE - Ya Libnan].

Carpe tomorrow!