Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Good morning,

🇮🇱 🇮🇷 Israel-Iran Conflict Update

Yesterday’s revised analysis following the US strikes is here

Key Military Developments

• US Airstrikes on Iranian Nuclear Sites:

  • The United States conducted overnight strikes on June 22 targeting three key Iranian nuclear facilities: Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz. The attacks used B-2 stealth bombers equipped with 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs and Tomahawk cruise missiles123.

  • Damage Assessments:

    • Fordow: Satellite images show at least six apparent bomb entry points, indicating significant damage to the underground uranium enrichment facility4.

    • Isfahan and Natanz: US and Israeli officials claim "extreme damage," though Israeli sources note that Fordow was not completely destroyed. Satellite imagery confirms additional damage to buildings at the Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center and possible strikes on new underground tunnel complexes south of Natanz34.

    • No Radiological Contamination: Both Iran and the UN nuclear watchdog reported no signs of radioactive contamination at any of the three sites1.

• Iranian Retaliation:

  • Iran launched missile attacks targeting northern and central Israel, including Ben Gurion Airport, a "biological research centre," logistics bases, and command centers. Iranian state media reported 30 missiles fired at Israel; Israeli rescue services confirmed emergency responses but did not immediately report casualties or damage15.

  • Threats: Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and Foreign Ministry have threatened further retaliation, including targeting US bases in the region and disrupting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s parliament approved a measure to close the Strait, pending final approval53.

• Ongoing Israeli Air Campaign:

  • Israel continued its air campaign, with nearly 20 fighter jets conducting intelligence-based strikes on missile storage, radar systems, and satellite infrastructure in Kermanshah, Hamedan, and Tehran53.

Human and Political Impact

• Casualties:

  • Iranian missile attacks on Israel injured at least 16 people in the latest wave, while earlier reports noted 86 injuries in Iran from previous Israeli strikes25.

• Political Reactions:

  • US: President Trump declared the strikes a "remarkable success," warning Iran against further aggression. The US issued a "worldwide caution" for Americans abroad due to increased security risks25.

  • Iran: Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi denounced the US strikes as a "serious breach" of international law and the Non-Proliferation Treaty, vowing "lasting consequences"25.

Effects on Markets and Commodities

• Oil Markets:

  • The conflict has sharply driven up oil prices, with the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint for global oil exports—under threat of closure by Iran. Around 20% of global oil exports flow through this waterway36.

  • Market Sentiment:

    • Investors remain cautious, with the S&P 500 hovering just below its February highs. Rising oil prices are fueling concerns about inflation and could disrupt the Federal Reserve’s plans for interest rate cuts6.

    • The oil market has absorbed the initial shock, but equities are on edge as the potential for a broader conflict looms6.

Summary Table

(Soures and URLs are at the bottom of the report)

🇸🇾 Syria Church Bombing Kills 22

A suicide bomber killed at least 22 people and wounded 63 others during Sunday mass at Mar Elias Church in Damascus, marking the first such attack in Syria in years. Syrian authorities blamed ISIL, saying the attacker fired at worshippers before detonating an explosives vest, with children among the casualties. The attack challenges interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa's efforts to win minority support and maintain stability as Syria recovers from 14 years of devastating war. More - Al Jazeera

🇳🇪 Niger Army Base Attacked

More than 200 gunmen on motorbikes stormed a Niger army base in Banibangou near the Mali border, killing at least 34 soldiers and injuring 14 others. Niger's defense ministry described the attackers as "mercenaries" and said troops killed "dozens of terrorists" in the battle at the western border town. The attack highlights continued jihadist violence despite Niger's military junta expelling French and US forces and forming an alliance with Mali and Burkina Faso to combat regional insurgency. More - BBC